Russian Net Assessment of Escalation Management in War Against NATO

Abstract: Escalation management is one of the key concepts guiding Russia's approach to warfare. Understanding how the Kremlin evaluates its ability to manage escalation provides useful insights into the Russian net assessment for a possible war against NATO. Dr Jacek Durkalec draws on his recent monograph titled 'Russian Net Assessment of European Security Balance' (Livermore Papers no. 13, March 2024). He explores three inter-related questions: 1) how has the Kremlin assessed Russia's progress in improving its ability to manage escalation over the last two decades; 2) how has the war with Ukraine influenced Moscow's assessments; and 3) what is the Kremlin's future prospect about escalation management? Given the increasing eagerness of the Russian leadership to play on escalation risks, Durkalec's talk will conclude with implications for NATO.

Bio: Jacek Durkalec is a staff officer in the Net Assessment Section at NATO HQ. From 2020 to 2023 he served as a senior fellow and from 2017 to 2020 as a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Since 2019, he has been an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. Prior to joining LLNL, he was a research analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs from 2010 to 2017. Jacek was also a staff member in the Missile Defence Office of the Polish Ministry of Defence in 2009-2010, and an intern in the Strategic Planning Unit of the Executive Office of the Secretary-General of the United Nations in 2008. In 2015, he was a visiting scholar at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. He holds a doctorate in political science (2016) and master's degree in international relations (2008) from Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland. He has published on topics related to US extended deterrence and NATO deterrence and defense policy and posture.