Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory



2018

November 2018

Multi- Domain Strategic Competition: Rewards and Risks

Key workshop questions:

  1. How do the United States, Russia, and China approach strategic competition in their defense strategies?
  2. How should the United States and its allies integrate efforts to improve strategic competitiveness with efforts to strengthen deterrence?
  3. What impact might new forms of strategic competition have on strategic stability?
  4. How can the United States and its allies reap the disruptive and deterrence benefits of new technologies while avoiding the unintended consequences?
Coming Soon »   View Bibliography »

September 2018

Assessing the Strategic Effects of Artificial Intelligence Workshop
The Future of Long Term Competitive Strategies

Key workshop questions:

  1. Establish a common understanding among participants about the main technological innovations considered to comprise the field of “artificial intelligence (AI),” and the possible “strategic effects,” including impacts on strategic stability and nuclear deterrence;
  2. Compare AI adoption and integration across countries;
  3. Examine AI’s potential effect on cross-domain and multi-domain deterrence;
  4. Consider operationalizing automation and Ai for the battlefield; and
  5. U.S. approaches to ensuring strategic stability in the age of AI
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July 2018

U.S. -Russian Nuclear Arms Control Workshop
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Key workshop questions:

  1. Is there an opportunity to renew the bilateral arms control framework in a manner acceptable to both sides and supporting mutually beneficial objectives? If not at present, can one be created? How?
  2. What, if anything, does President Putin want out of a re-constructed arms control approach?
  3. What new agreements or processes would serve the interests of the United States and its allies and partners?
  4. What might be the benefits and risks of a new US proposal for a follow-on to New START?
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June 2018

2018 Wilton Park: Adapting Deterrence Strategies to a Changing Security Environment
Major Power Rivalry and Deterrence

The meeting discussed:

  • How are the US and its allies adapting their deterrence strategies to the evolving security environment? Are they converging or diverging?
  • Is the balance of strategic influence shifting favorably or unfavorably in Europe and Asia?
  • What can be done to accelerate deterrence transformation and improved strategic competitiveness?

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May 2018

Project on Nuclear Gaming: Investigating the Impact of Nuclear Weapons Capabilities on Deterrence
The Future of Long Term Competitive Strategies

Key workshop questions:

  1. What are the implications of adding new capabilities to nuclear arsenals?
  2. How do these new capabilities impact nuclear deterrence and conflict escalation dynamics?
  3. Can frontier experimental methods using gaming techniques contribute to questions of nuclear deterrence?
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March 2018

Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century (SW21) : Understanding the New U.S. Policy Context, 2018

The objectives of this year’s event were:

  • To understand the new policies and approaches of the Trump administration
  • To understand areas of continuity and change with previous Nuclear Posture Reviews and the challenges of implementation
  • To better understand domestic and foreign reactions
  • To characterize and assess implications for the U.S. nuclear enterprise
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February 2018

Cyberspace, Information Strategy and International Security
The Future of Long Term Competitive Strategies

Key workshop questions:

  1. How might increasingly competitive information strategies and military uses of cyberspace affect the security of the United States and its allies?
  2. Who are the stakeholders in cyberspace security and what interests will shape their future choices?
  3. What can be done to mitigate risks?
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January 2018

Space in the 21st Century Conflict: Calibrating Risks, Tailoring Strategies
The Future of Long Term Competitive Strategies

Key worksop Questions:

  1. What role can we expect the space domain to play in the conflicts the United States and its allies are likely to face in the next decade or two?
  2. How can we encourage a shift in focus: from a focus on the elements of space military strategy to a focus on the role of space in broader defense and deterrence strategies?
  3. In such a broader strategic approach, what roles can other stakeholders play?
  4. What implications follow for the policies, strategies, and capabilities of the United States and its allies?
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2017

November 2017

U.S. Extended Deterrence in Europe and in the Asia- Pacific; Similarities, Differences, and Interdependencies
Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence

Key workshop questions:

  1. What are the parallels, contrasts, and links between the European and Asia-Pacific security landscapes?
  2. What are accomplishments and gaps in adapting regional deterrence policies in both regions? What are perceptions of credibility of U.S. extended deterrence in Europe and Asia-Pacific?
  3. What can be done to improve extended deterrence hardware and software in both regions? Which options are region-specific, and which would address the needs of allies from both regions?
  4. What are benefits and risks of closer interactions between U.S. allies from Europe and Asia-Pacific aimed at harmonizing deterrence policies in both regions?
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November 2017

Strengthening Deterrence for 21st Century Strategic Conflicts and Competition: Accelerating Adaptation and Integration
Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence

Key workshop questions:

  1. How well is the United States doing in competing to develop concepts and capabilities to negate the deterrence strategies of potential adversaries in high end regional conflict?
  2. What can be done to improve the integration of U.S. military capabilities so that they are more certain of promising decisive effects if crisis erupts tomorrow?
  3. What can be done to improve the competitive position of the United States and its allies over the longer term so that strategic deterrence becomes more robust?
  4. How can the United States and its allies more effectively cooperate to accelerate adaptation and integration.
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October 2017

Multi-Domain Deterrence Table Top Exercise Summary
Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence

Key exercise considerations

  • How do we establish consensus among the U.S. and its allies regarding red lines and thresholds?
  • How do we determine the best U.S. responses to aggression in order to restore deterrence and to reassure allies?
  • Do we understand and agree on what constitutes “strategic attack?”
  • What are the response options in the event of nuclear use short of a successful attack on U.S. and/or allied interests?
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August 2017

Maintaining Innovation and Security in Biotechnology: Lessons Learned from Nuclear, Chemical, and Information Technologies
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Key workshop questions

  1. In an increasingly globalized, democratized, and open information society, what can the U.S. do to maintain its technological edge without compromising its national security?
  2. What can previous policies teach us on how to maintain innovation and enhance economic return while preserving a safe, secure, and socially responsible research and development community?
  3. Are there lessons to be learned from the regulation of previous dual-use technologies that could be applied to biotechnologies?
  4. In retrospect, what might have been done differently?U.S. do to maintain its technological edge without compromising its national security?
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June 2017

2017 Wilton Park: Rethinking Deterrence and Assurance. Western Deterrence Strategies: At an Inflection Point?
Major Power Rivalry and Deterrence

This meeting asked:

  • Are changes in the global security environment of a sufficiently fundamental kind to alter core premises of Western deterrence strategies?
  • What implications follow for the cooperative efforts of the transatlantic community to strengthen and adapt deterrence to changing requirements?
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May 2017

Taking Stock: Nuclear Disarmament and U.S Disarmament Diplomacy
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

With the transition from the Obama to the Trump administration, it is time to assess the lessons of the experience of the departing administration and the prospects for meaningful disarmament steps in the years ahead. Drawing on the perspectives of a bipartisan group of experts affiliated with four presidential administrations, the group took a long term perspective on the past and future. Among other results is a set of goals that should guide US disarmament diplomacy over the next 8-10 years.
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May 2017

Strategic Weapons in the 21St Century (SW21), 2017

2017 LANL-LLNL SW21 event focused on changes in the security environment and the implications for the US approach to deterrence, with special attention to extended deterrence in Europe and East Asia.

March 2017

Emerging Challenges in the China-US Strategic Military Relationship
Major Power Rivalry and Deterrence

Workshop Objectives:

  • To identify and explore key factors in the evolving US-PRC bilateral relationship, with a particular focus on security issues
  • To better understand China’s approach to possible conflict with the United States and its allies beyond the conventional level of war
  • To better understand the approach of the United States and its allies to the possible escalation of conflict with China
  • To identify practical steps to strengthen deterrence, assurance, and strategic stability
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2016

October 2016

Rethinking Approaches to Strategic Stability in the 21st Century
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Workshop Objectives:

  • To reexamine U.S. policy approaches to strategic stability in light of a changed and changing security environment
  • To explore the impacts on strategic stability of an increasingly multipolar security environment
  • To explore the impacts on strategic stability of the increasingly multidimensional nature of international conflict, with the emergence of new forms of competition and new domains
  • To assess how the technical community can better assist the policy community in developing needed insights and approaches
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October 2016

Deterring a Nuclear-Arming North Korea
New Regional Challengers and Challenges

Workshop Objectives:

  • To shift the focus from preventing and rolling back North Korea’s nuclear program to deterring North Korean nuclear-backed aggression and its further build up of capabilities
  • To catalogue the instruments of influence and characterize needed deterrence capabilities
  • To identify key analytical issues for continued focus by the analytical community
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November 2016

2016 Cross- Domain Deterrence Seminar
Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence

At the CDD Seminar, the community explored deterrence challenges in an increasingly dynamic security environment. The real-world events of the past year validated many of the findings of prior seminars and in some cases, overtook the scenario planning for the TTX.
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August 2016

Independent Biotechnology: The Innovation- Regulation Dilemma
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Government experts to biohackers were asked to consider regulatory issues relevant to independent DIY biotechnology community. Attendees participated in a scenario-based forum designed to increase appreciation of the risks that might be perceived by other sectors.
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August 2016

Space and the Third Offset
Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence

The challenges and opportunities facing the US, as it looks to integrate space into defense & deterrence strategy and strategic stability frameworks. The US and allies are grappling with integrating space into defense strategy and broader approaches to deterrence and strategic stability.
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July 2016

The Future of Nonproliferation in a Changed and Changing Security Environment
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Experts from technical, academic, defense, gov, and think tank communities considered: what and how much, can reasonably be accomplished in nonproliferation, arms control, threat reduction, counter­proliferation, and countering nuclear terrorism in the next 5-10 years.
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    The Future of Nonproliferation in a Changed and Changing Security Environment
    The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

    Does the intnl. security environment suggest adding an effort to deal with “loss control” to DoD’s counter nuclear threats focus on “prevention” (securing warheads, fissile materials)? A strategy is proposed to compensate for the current lack of transparency into Russia.
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    A "Ring Strategy" for Russian "Loose Nukes"
    The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

    View Report »  

July 2016

Dogs that Haven't Barked: Towards an Understanding of the Absence of Expected Technological Threats
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Why are some consistently predicted threats from science and technology (S&T) not manifested with the impacts to international security as forecasted. During this workshop, the group focused on the biotechnology and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
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January 2016

Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century (SW21): Deterrence and Assurance in a Changed and Changing World, 2016
The Future of Long Term Competitive Strategies

2016 LLNL-LANL SW21 conference focused on deterrence and assurance in a changed and changing world. The deterrence strategies and implications of Russia, China, and regional challengers on deterrence, nuclear infrastructure, and hedge strategies of the US and its allies.
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January 2016

Countering Russia's Strategy for Regional Coercion and War
Major Power Rivalry and Deterrence

The 2nd workshop to examine Russia’s approach to regional security, and the challenges to US and NATO for developing responsive strategies. This looks more closely at how Ru. would execute its concept for conflict in a local confrontation w/ NATO that escalated to a wider war.
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January 2016

Strategic Latency and Warning: Private Sector Perspectives on Current Intelligence Challenges in Science and Technology
The Future of Long Term Competitive Strategies

LLNL and NIU convened business experts to examine parallels between S&T competition in the marketplace and S&T intelligence. Is it significant to S&TI that individuals and connected groups are central to the development and application of latent S&T capabilities?
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2015

November 2015

Thinking Globally about U.S. Extended Deterrence
New Regional Challengers and Challenges

CGSR, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Pacific Forum CSIS, deterrence specialists and government officials discussed the changing deterrence and assurance requirements, the threads that connect regions, and US strategy to deal with emerging challenges.
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November 2015

2015 Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar
Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence

The 2nd Cross-Domain Deterrence seminar explored the dynamics of escalation and de-escalation in cyber space, outer space, and the nuclear domain, using a scenario involving a NATO Article V defense of a Baltic ally.
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September 2015

The Future Role of HPC in Medical Product Decision Making
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

The CGSR & HPCIC engaged stakeholders from academia, industry, national laboratories and government agencies to discuss the benefits and challenges of HPC and use of data driven discovery that employs computationally intensive modeling and simulation.
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August 2015

Putin's Russia and U.S. Defense Strategy
Major Power Rivalry and Deterrence

Defense planning should be informed by contemporary Russian attitudes, doctrine, and capabilities: How does Russia approach deterring and defeating a conventionally superior nuclear-armed power and allies? What should US and NATO’s defensive posture look like?
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July 2015

Systems Concept for Arms Control Verification
The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

Explored lessons learned from the IAEA State-Level Concept (SLC) for safeguards. Can it be adapted and utilized to develop a systems approach for arms control-addressing the stare as a whole, rather than focus on verification of specific agreements?
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November 2014

2014 Cross- Domain Seminar Summary Notes

The first CCD Seminar was designed to foster discussion on the interplay between nuclear deterrence, advanced conventional weapons employment, cyber warfare and contested space, and the impact of that interplay on the decision calculus of potential adversaries.
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