Long-term trajectory of Russia's military strategy and strategic capabilities

Abstract: Dave Johnson will discuss Russia's long-term military strategy with a retrospective view of its evolution over the past twenty years and an assessment of its possible evolution twenty years into the future. He will provide some context by describing Russia's strategic trajectory and its threat perceptions with a focus on military strategy and long-term priorities. He will close by setting out some alternate futures as context for the likelihood of Russia achieving its priority goals and what kind of Russia the United States and its NATO Allies may grapple with in twenty years' time. Russia's belligerent approach to pursuing its security interests since 2007 is more in line with its historical norms than Russia's efforts toward cooperation with the West between 1991 and 2007. The enduring zero-sum security perspective of Russia's leaders is an amalgamation of unchanging physical-geographic realities and a deeply-rooted historical-cultural heritage different from that of the West and the ideals and principles of the 'liberal international order.' Within the framework of its geographic and historical-cultural heritage, Russian security and defense policy toward the US and its NATO Allies has evolved in response to geopolitical circumstances and military-technical developments, with these two components interacting with and reinforcing each other. Balancing national and collective interests with shared values to arrive at agreed action against Russia's aggression, as Allies have done in the case of Ukraine, will remain a complex test of Allied cohesion. It will also be vital to the security of Allies.

Abstract: Dave Johnson was a staff officer at NATO Headquarters, Defence Policy and Planning Division, from 2005 until 2023, where he contributed to policy documents that guided NATO's military adaptation in response to Russian aggression. He previously served as an officer in the US Air Force, including posts at SHAPE, US Strategic Command, US embassy in Moscow and the Pentagon. Mr. Johnson has published widely on Russian military strategy and doctrine. His presentation is drawn from his most recent paper, Russian Security and Defense Policy from Stalin to Putin, which is forthcoming in June 2024 as a chapter in the Routledge Handbook of NATO.