China's Climate Security Vulnerabilities: Implications for the United States

Abstract: This talk will explore the threat posed by weather pattern hazards to Chinese critical military and economic infrastructure, as well as the compound risks to domestic stability and increasing international competition. While China is often credited with better integrating a long-term approach to its strategic planning than the West, there are key uncertainties regarding Beijing's climate security preparations, including tensions between day-to-day politics and strategic planning, as well as the adequacy of its adaptation strategy, which is largely rooted in physical infrastructure projects. The discussion will conclude with recommendations for the United States as it addresses what the Department of Defense has called the 'pacing threat' from China. Overall, it's critical to mainstream an understanding of these climate vulnerabilities and China's probable response to them into US China policy.

Bio: Erin Sikorsky is director of the Center for Climate and Security (CCS), and the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS). She is an expert in geopolitical risk, strategic forecasting, and the national security implications of environmental response, particularly the nexus of geopolitical competition and environmental response. Previously, Erin served as deputy director of the Strategic Futures Group on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the United States, where she co-authored the quadrennial Global Trends report and led the US intelligence community's environmental and climate security analysis. She was the founding chair of the Climate Security Advisory Council, a Congressionally mandated group designed to facilitate coordination between the intelligence community and US government scientific agencies. Prior to her position on the National Intelligence Council, she worked as a senior analyst in the US intelligence community for over a decade, leading teams examining conflict and instability risks in Africa and the Middle East, and won the National Intelligence Analysis Award.