A Framework of Deterrence in Space Operations

Abstract: This new RAND report presents a framework on the nature and requirements of deterrence in space operations. Drawing on lessons from nuclear and cyber and selected national approaches to space deterrence (China, Russia, France, Japan, and India), it presents three archetypes for space deterrence. It concludes that a comprehensive approach to space deterrence is likely to be most successful and should be tailored to address the distinct risk calculus and informational needs of various adversaries. Strategic messaging, selective revelation of space capabilities, and development of norms of responsible space behavior can also help deter attacks on space systems. The full report is available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA820-1.html

Bio: Stephen J. Flanagan is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the RAND Corporation in Washington and Adjunct Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University. His research interests include U.S. defense strategy, alliance and partnership relations, regional security in Europe/Eurasia, strategic deterrence, and outer space security. Dr. Flanagan served in several senior positions in the U.S. government over four decades, most recently as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Defense Policy at the National Security Council, 2013-15, where he chaired the Interagency Policy Committee on Space Security. Earlier he served as Senior Director for Central and Eastern Europe at the NSC; National Intelligence Officer for Europe; Associate Director and Member of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff; and Professional Staff Member, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. He also held senior research and faculty positions at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, National Defense University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, and Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and earned an A.B. in political science from Columbia Univ. and a Ph.D. in international relations from the Fletcher School, Tufts Univ.