The Rise and Fall of Great Technologies and Powers

Abstract: Who did it first? Which country innovated it first? Presented with technical breakthroughs that inspire astonishment, it is only natural to gravitate toward the moment of initial discovery. Likewise, when today's leaders and scholars think about how technological change could affect great power competition between the U.S. and China, they draw on historical templates that center the moment of innovation. Neglected is the process by which new technologies spread and become embedded across a range of economic activities. Yet, without the humble undertaking of diffusion, even the most extraordinary advances will not matter.

Taking diffusion seriously, this book develops a different pathway for how technological revolutions affect the rise and fall of great powers. Less concerned with which state first introduced major innovations, it instead probes why some states were more successful at adapting and embracing new technologies at scale. Supported by evidence from historical case studies of past industrial revolutions and statistical analysis, the book develops a novel explanation for technology-driven power transitions based on institutional adaptations that widen the base of engineering skills and knowledge linked to foundational technologies. The findings directly bear on how emerging technologies like AI, which some regard as driving a fourth industrial revolution, could influence the U.S.-China power balance.

Bio: Jeffrey Ding is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. Previously, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, sponsored by Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. His research has been published at European Journal of International Security, Foreign Affairs, Review of International Political Economy, and Security Studies, and his work has been cited in The Washington Post, The Financial Times, and other outlets. He also writes a weekly "ChinAI" newsletter, which features translations of Chinese conversations about AI development, to 14,000+ subscribers including the field's leading policymakers, scholars, and journalists. Dr. Ding holds a Ph.D. in international relations from Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes scholar.