Nuclear Proliferation after Ukraine

Abstract: Will Russia's invasion of Ukraine—a country that gave up the nuclear weapons it had inherited from the Soviet Union in exchange for security assurances—lead to a new wave of nuclear proliferation? How worried should we be about the spread of nuclear and other strategic technologies in wake of Vladimir Putin's nuclear saber rattling, and why? What does Russian aggression mean for the challenges facing the global nonproliferation regime? How can the United States and its NATO partners retool diplomatic options to prevent worst case outcomes? Join us for a discussion of these key questions about the global nuclear order. Drawing on his new book, Leveraging Latency: How the Weak Compel the Strong with Nuclear Technology (Oxford University Press), and recent article in Foreign Affairs (with Eric Brewer and Nicholas Miller), Dr. Tristan Volpe will argue that risk of nuclear proliferation in the aftermath of Russia's invasion is lower than many believe. If fact, if handled properly, the current crisis could end up strengthening nonproliferation efforts rather than igniting a cascade of new weapons states.

Bio: Dr. Tristan A. Volpe is an Assistant Professor in the Defense Analysis Department at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is also a nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He studies how technology shapes coercion, cooperation, and competition among nations. Mr. Volpe's most recent publications explain the rise of the autocratic nuclear marketplace (with Nicholas L. Miller) and explore the effect of emerging technology on nuclear proliferation.