China's Emergence as a Second Nuclear Peer: Implications for US Nuclear Deterrence

Abstract: Revelations of summer 2021 about China's rapid expansion of its nuclear force brought into focus an emerging problem for US nuclear deterrence strategy: the need to deter two nuclear peers simultaneously. The emergence of a second nuclear peer raises significant new questions about how to deal with the new risks of opportunistic aggression and whether the United States will have enough forces, and forces of the right kind, to achieve its deterrence and assurance objectives in a future two-peer world. It also raises questions about many of the practices of deterrence by the United States, especially extended deterrence, and about arms control and other risk reduction strategies. To better understand the emerging two-peer challenge and its implications, LLNL's Center for Global Security Research convened a bipartisan study group. After a year of study and deliberation, it has just released a report, which is available for downloading from the CGSR website. Dr. Brad Roberts, director of CGSR, chaired the study group and will present its findings and recommendations.

Bio: Brad Roberts is the director of the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Prior to this position, he was deputy assistant secretary of defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy. In this role, he served as policy director of the Obama administration's Nuclear Posture Review and Ballistic Missile Defense Review and led their implementation. Between leaving the Office of the Secretary of Defense and assuming his current responsibilities, Dr. Roberts was a consulting professor at Stanford University and William Perry Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). While at CISAC, he authored a book entitled The Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century, which won the Choice Award for Outstanding Academic Title in 2016.