Hypersonic Weapons, Deterrence, and the Acquisition Debate

Abstract: Debates in the United States about hypersonic weapons today revolve around acquiring hypersonic missiles and pursuing arms control initiatives, but concern about a hypersonic gap is misplaced and indicates a misunderstanding about the strategic trade-offs and benefits associated with hypersonic technology. Similarly, arms control solutions proposed to date have not paid enough attention to the specifics of the weapons and their implications for strategic stability. Using hypersonic weapons as a case study, I outline a theoretical framework for making decisions about acquiring new technology and developing arms control proposals. Ultimately, I conclude that U.S. policy on the acquisition of hypersonic missile technology overstates the immediate need for these missiles, falls short on offering strategies that would discourage adversaries from developing such weapons, and under-emphasizes the importance of nonproliferation efforts.

Bio: Dr. Carrie A. Lee is an associate professor at the US Army War College, where she serves as the Chair of the Department of National Security and Strategy and co-director of the USAWC Center on Civil-Military Relations. She received her Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University in 2015, and a B.S. from MIT in 2010. She studies how democratic political institutions (like elections) affect inter-state conflict, military operations, and foreign policy decision-making, and has also done work on counterinsurgency strategy, public opinion and foreign policy, humanitarian crises and intervention, and nuclear arms control and nonproliferation.