Threshold Alliance: Assessing the China-Pakistan Military Relationship

Abstract: Pakistan was once considered a threshold nuclear power because of it had accumulated the material conditions and technical capacity to quickly transform an ostensibly peaceful nuclear program into a weapons program. Today, Pakistan and China possess sufficient shared hardware, software, and political understandings approaching the threshold of a functional military alliance. This presentation examines the contours, growth, and trajectory of the China-Pakistan military relationship. It focuses on China's growing contributions to Pakistan's force structure and advanced technologies, the increasing scope and complexity of joint military exercises, and the openness on both sides for China to leverage Pakistan's geography for power projection, all of which will shape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. This research draws upon new open-source data on defense acquisition trajectories, military exercises, and public opinion, as well as unique secondary sources and interviews to provide a detailed assessment of the China-Pakistan military partnership.

Bio: Dr. Sameer Lalwani is a Senior Fellow for Asia Strategy at the Stimson Center and a non-resident fellow with the Sigur Center for Asian Studies at George Washington University. He researches deterrence, interstate rivalry, alliances, crisis behavior, and counter/insurgency. He is also a term member with the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Contributing Editor to War on the Rocks. He has previously been an Adjunct Professor at GWU and a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at RAND. He is the editor of Investigating Crises: South Asia's Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories (Stimson Center). Dr. Lalwani completed his Ph.D. from MIT's Department of Political Science where he was an affiliate of the Security Studies Program.