Russia's AI Innovation Trajectory: An Uncertain Future

Abstract: While Russia lags behind the United States and China in artificial intelligence development and integration, in both commercial and military applications, the Russian leadership has identified AI as a strategic technology, directing resources to shore up AI research, improve data management, buttress computing capabilities, and invest in tech talent. Over the past decade, the Russian Ministry of Defense has set up a network of research and development organizations focused on innovation in emerging technologies such AI, with notable progress in areas such as military robotics, electronic warfare, and information warfare. Russia's war in Ukraine, however, has exposed systemic problems throughout the nation's defense apparatus. The ineffectiveness of the Russian forces and the abysmal state of their equipment has raised serious doubts about the success of the Kremlin's military's modernization efforts and ability to integrate advanced technologies into complex operations. Moreover, the extensive sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe are said to significantly undermine Russia's ability to source components for its sophisticated military systems, which the indigenous defense-industrial base is largely unable to provide. What is the future of Russia's military modernization efforts, especially in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and autonomy? This talk will provide an overview of Russia's AI ecosystem, focusing on advances in military applications of AI, assess Russian advanced technology capabilities in the context of the war in Ukraine, as well as reflect on how Western sanctions may impact Russia's AI innovation trajectory.

Bio: Dr. Margarita Konaev is Deputy Director of Analysis and a Research Fellow at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) interested in military applications of AI and Russian military innovation. She is also an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Center for a New American Security. Ms. Margarita's research on international security, armed conflict, non-state actors and urban warfare in the Middle East, Russia and Eurasia has been published by the Journal of Strategic Studies, the Journal of Global Security Studies, Conflict Management and Peace Science, the French Institute of International Relations, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Lawfare, War on the Rocks, Modern War Institute, Foreign Policy Research Institute and a range of other outlets.