The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on Energy Security in Europe and Globally
Abstract: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought energy security issues to the forefront. In 2021, Russia was the world's largest combined exporter of oil and natural gas, and revenues from oil and natural gas made up 45% of Russia's federal budget. European countries and private companies are facing intense pressure to substantially reduce energy imports from Russia, prompting questions of how feasible it is to do so and how such moves could affect energy markets worldwide this year and beyond if the conflict continues. At the lecture, speakers will address these questions by summarizing current energy security conditions and assessing risks and opportunities for reducing imports of Russian energy. Can the European Union reach its goal of cutting imports of Russian gas by two-thirds this year? Is there enough supply of non-Russian liquefied natural gas to meet increased European demand? What is the oil market outlook through 2022, and how might a prolonged conflict affect global oil supply and pricing?
Ben Cahill is a senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He covers oil markets, geopolitics, and macro trends affecting the oil and gas industry. He also leads a research initiative on methane emissions and global gas and analyzes how national oil companies are responding to the energy transition. Mr. Cahill was previously a director in Energy Intelligence's Research & Advisory group and led its country risk practice, advising oil and gas companies on politics, economics, and policy risks.
Nikos Tsafos is the James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics with the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Mr. Nikos has written extensively on the geopolitics of energy and natural gas; the political economy of hydrocarbon states; European climate policy; and the geopolitics of energy in the Arctic, Europe, the eastern Mediterranean, and Southeast Asia. Before CSIS, Mr. Nikos worked for over a decade as a consultant and advised companies and governments in over 30 countries on some of the world's most complex energy projects.
