Lessons in Deterrence from Russia's War in Ukraine

Abstract: On February 24, Vladimir Putin launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and since then has waged a brutal war against Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Though not necessarily a nuclear crisis—at least not up to this point—it is a crisis and a conflict containing nuclear crisis elements. It is also one that illustrates lessons about deterrence, and about nuclear deterrence in particular. This talk summarizes some of the nuclear crisis elements from the leadup to and first weeks of the war, and considers what these events indicate about deterrence success and failure, nuclear strategy and declaratory policy, challenges of communicating and interpreting nuclear deterrence signaling, nuclear capabilities and their implications for strategic stability, extended deterrence and assurance, and implications for arms control.

Bio: Aaron Miles is currently on assignment as Senior Advisor in the U.S. Department of State Office of Strategic Stability and Deterrence. He served previously in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy as Principal Assistant Director for National Security and International Affairs and as Assistant Director for Nuclear and Strategic Technologies, and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense as a senior policy advisor on nuclear deterrence. Prior to these assignments, Dr. Miles worked as a research physicist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where he is also a Fellow at the Center for Global Security Research. He has worked, researched, and written on a range of policy, science, and security topics, including deterrence, nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation, fusion energy, astrophysics, space nuclear power and propulsion, research security, and planetary defense. Dr. Miles holds a Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Maryland, a graduate certificate in National Security Studies from Texas A&M University, and a B.S. in Physics and B.A. in Russian from Arizona State University.