Dynamics of U.S.-China Military Competition: How Intense and How Interactive?

Abstract: Despite an examination of U.S.-China strategic competition from a variety of perspectives, there has been relative neglect of how intense and how interactive the competition is likely to be. Many analysts emphasize the need for the United States to increase resources focused on strategic competition with China and implicitly suggest that Beijing will be unable to match U.S. efforts. Yet it is not clear how China will respond and the extent to which leaders on both sides can control the dynamics of strategic and military competition. The first section discusses general factors that make strategic competition more or less intense and more or less interactive, with a theoretical explanation of each factor followed by a concise examination of how it manifests in U.S.-China competition. The second section examines current U.S.-China military competition, including subjective analysis of recent trends, current dynamics, and future possibilities. The analysis highlights U.S. and Chinese operational actions in the Asia- Pacific, conventional force modernization to gain an edge in a potential conflict over Taiwan, development of nuclear and non-nuclear strategic capabilities, and an emerging competition for allies and bases. The third section focuses more narrowly on mechanisms that may make military competition more or less interactive. The conclusion considers the likely impact of sustained military competition that might not produce decisive advantages for either side, including the impact on the broader bilateral relationship and on regional security.

Bio: Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is Director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies, where he has worked since 2004. He previously worked at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, where he was Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program from 1999-2003 and conducted research at Princeton University and the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Saunders also worked on Asia issues as an officer in the United States Air Force. Dr. Saunders is co-author of The Paradox of Power: Sino-American Strategic Restraint in an Era of Vulnerability and has edited nine books on Asian security issues, including The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context (2021), Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms (2019) and PLA Influence on China's National Security Policymaking (2015).