China's Nuclear Modernization and its Implications

Recent open-source research reveals that China may be massively building up its nuclear forces at an unprecedented speed and scale in its history. Using publicly available information, this presentation will discuss potential drivers of China's nuclear modernization and how China's pursuit of a nuclear triad capability fits into the country's overall security policy thinking. It will analyze the potential implications of this comprehensive modernization for regional security and the U.S.-China security relationship. It will conclude by discussing what measures may be helpful to prevent a costly and dangerous nuclear arms competition and to mitigate nuclear risks between the United States and China.

Tong Zhao is a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Based in Beijing, he conducts research on strategic security issues, such as nuclear weapons policy, deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, hypersonic weapons, and China's security and foreign policy. During August to November 2021, he is also a virtual visiting research fellow at the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the Sandia National Laboratories.

Mr. Zhao is an associate editor of the journal Science & Global Security and is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials. He also serves on the board of directors of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament and on the advisory board of the Missile Dialogue Initiative. Previously he was a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at Harvard University, a nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum, and worked for the Office of Foreign Affairs of the People's Government of Beijing Municipality.

Dr. Zhao holds a PhD in science, technology, and international affairs from Georgia Institute of Technology, as well as an MA in international relations and a BS in physics from Tsinghua University. He is the author of "Tides of Change: China's Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability" and "Narrowing the U.S.-China Gap on Missile Defense: How to Help Forestall a Nuclear Arms Race."