NATO Nuclear Burden-Sharing: What Constitutes "Free-Riding"?

Robert G. Bell's presentation focuses on a subset of nations in NATO—the 11 U.S. allies that are both equipped and eligible to assume operational roles under the Alliance's nuclear-sharing arrangements, as constituted at present by the Dual Capable Aircraft (DCA) posture. He explains why six of the 11 have decided to opt in on this mission, whereas five have elected to opt out. Mr. Bell draws two main conclusions. First, based on extensive interviews with senior officials from the Obama and Trump administrations and NATO political and military leaders, he finds that those U.S. allies that elect to participate in DCA have not been pressured or coerced by the U.S. or NATO to do so. Second, he contends that rather than being pressured, individual allies decide whether or not to participate in DCA based on their own sovereign calculation of five specific pro and con factors: extra cost (con), domestic opposition to nuclear weapons (con), balance of threat (pro), nature and degree of transatlantic alignment (pro), and status or ranking within NATO (pro).

Robert G. Bell's 45-year U.S. government career included seven years as the U.S. Defense Advisor at NATO, three years as NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investment, seven years at the White House as President Clinton's NSC Senior Director for Defense Policy and Arms Control, 18 years on the staffs of the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees and the Congressional Research Service, and six years as an Air Force officer. From 2003-2010, he was a Senior VP at SAIC, directing business development activities in Europe. Mr. Bell has a BS in International Affairs from the U.S. Air Force Academy and an MA in International Security Studies from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He is currently a fourth-year PhD candidate at Fletcher and a Distinguished Professor of the Practice at Georgia Tech.