China's Nuclear Skepticism and the Future of Arms Control

Policymakers and analysts are calling for including China in nuclear arms-control efforts. Missing from debates is an analysis of Chinese perspectives. Drawing on Chinese language materials including military journals, our project traces the evolution of arms-control views among Chinese strategists and experts during the last decade.

Chinese strategists view arms control through a strongly realpolitik prism. Many lament US domination of the arms-control agenda and believe US initiatives are intended to undermine Chinese nuclear deterrence. More broadly, Chinese strategists believe they face a more intense and diverse threat environment than in the past, and view U.S. nonnuclear capabilities as the greatest threat to its deterrent. The widespread skepticism and outright cynicism among Chinese observers highlight why including China in arms control will be very challenging.

Henrik Stålhane Hiim is an associate professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, which is part of the Norwegian Defence University College. His research interests are nonproliferation, arms control, and Chinese foreign policy. His recently published book, Strategic Assistance: China and International Nuclear Weapons Proliferation (Routledge 2018) explores the evolution of China's approach to the nuclear programs of Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea. His work has also appeared in journals such as International Security, Asian Security and Survival. Mr. Hiim holds a PhD in Political Science from Oslo University and is a former Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has also been a guest researcher at Beijing University.

Magnus Langset Trøan is a research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. His area of expertise is in Chinese politics and foreign policy. Mr. Trøan has lived and worked in China for several years, and he was previously engaged as a political and security risk analyst focusing on Asia and Africa. He attained an LL.M. degree in international politics from Fudan University, Shanghai, in 2018.