Prospects for the Upcoming Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)

The upcoming NPT Review Conference (RevCon) -- delayed from 2020 due to the pandemic and now tentatively scheduled for August 2021 -- is likely to be contentious, like all previous RevCons. Among the divisive issues will be nuclear disarmament, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and a Middle East zone free of all weapons of mass destruction. Many parties are counting on the newly installed Biden administration to adopt positions that they favor, especially on reducing the role and numbers of nuclear weapons, but their expectations may be unrealistic, given significant continuity in U.S. strategic policies and the likelihood that the administration's strategic reviews will not have been completed by the time of the RevCon. Whether the RevCon is ultimately seen as a success could depend on whether the parties abandon their traditional practice of insisting that any conference outcome be adopted by consensus. But it is important to ask whether, and to what extent, the RevCon outcome -- whether perceived as a success or failure -- will actually affect the future of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime and the likelihood that additional states will acquire nuclear weapons.

Robert Einhorn served as the U.S. Department of State special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, a position created by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Mr. Einhorn played a leading role in the formulation and execution of U.S. policy toward Iran's nuclear program, both with respect to sanctions and negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries. He also helped shape the Obama administration's overall approach to nonproliferation; supported nonproliferation goals through diplomatic contacts with China, Russia, and key non-aligned countries; and addressed nuclear security and strategic stability challenges in South Asia. His played a key role in the development of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review and served as U.S. delegation head in negotiations with South Korea on a successor civil nuclear agreement.