The Standstill Conundrum: Coming Vulnerability of Second-Strike Deterrent Forces

Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) pose a number of uncertainties for the future of conflict, but nowhere are these uncertainties more acute than in the realm of nuclear stability and deterrence. Experts land on both sides of the divide: Either the technologies speed nuclear escalation, or they slow it. As Brad Roberts and his team here at Livermore discovered, "…every hypothesis about the disruptive effects of EDTs…has generated a counterhypothesis."

In the face of such uncertainty, it behooves us to hone in on potential long-term threats to our nuclear deterrent forces. Assuming that the advanced nuclear powers stay together in the race to be on the leading edge, the emerging and disruptive technologies may produce a signal effect in 20-25 years, undoing second-strike deterrence during a similar period for all. Rose Gottemoeller explores this "standstill conundrum" and its implications for the future of nuclear weapons.

Rose Gottemoeller is the Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, and a senior fellow at CGSR. She served as deputy secretary general of NATO from 2016 to 2019, where she helped to drive forward NATO's adaptation to new security challenges in Europe and in the fight against terrorism. Prior to NATO, Ms. Gottemoeller served for nearly five years as the under secretary for arms control and international security at the U.S. Department of State, advising the secretary of state on arms control, nonproliferation and political-military affairs. While assistant secretary of state for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance in 2009 and 2010, she was the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation. Prior to her government service, she was a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with joint appointments to the Nonproliferation and Russia programs. She served as the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2006 to 2008, and is currently a nonresident fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program.