Artificial Intelligence: Nuclear Strategy and Risk in the Digital Age
We are now in an era of rapid disruptive technological change, especially in artificial intelligence (AI). AI technology is already being infused into military machines, and global armed forces are well advanced in their planning, research and development, and in some cases, deployment of AI-enabled capabilities. While much of the recent discussion has focused on specific technical issues and uncertainties involved as militaries developed AI applications at the tactical and operational level of war, strategic issues have only been lightly researched. This research addresses this gap. It provides a coherent, innovative, and multidisciplinary examination of AI technology's potential effects on nuclear strategy and risk.
The research advances an innovative theoretical framework to consider AI technology and nuclear risk, drawing on insights from political psychology, neuroscience, computer science, and strategic studies. Connecting the project's core research threads are human cognitive-psychological explanations, dilemmas, and puzzles. In this way, the research will stimulate thinking about concrete vexing policymaking issues, including trade-offs in human-machine collaboration and automating escalation (i.e., retaining human control of nuclear weapons while not relinquishing the potential benefits of AI-augmentation); modern deterrence (i.e., regional asymmetric threats short of nuclear war and systemic global stability between great powers); and designing nuclear structures, postures, and philosophies of use in the digital age.
James Johnson is an Assistant Professor in the School of Law & Government at Dublin City University and a Non-Resident Fellow with the Modern War Institute at West Point. James was previously a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California. He completed his PhD in Politics & International Relations at the University of Leicester, where he is an Honorary Visiting Fellow with the School of History, Politics, & International Relations. James is also a Mid-Career Cadre Class of 2020 with the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) Project on Nuclear Issues.
