Nuclear Modernization with a New President and Congress: Continued Bipartisan Support or Not?

Many of us take as a given that the Triad of U.S. nuclear forces helps prevent major wars and promote strategic stability among the major powers. But the set of exquisite capabilities—the people who design, develop, secure, plan, operate and maintain nuclear forces and the associated R&D, manufacturing and operational infrastructure that supports this effort—are no less a factor in assuring allies and deterring adversaries. Over the next two decades this set of capabilities will be tested in very complex modernization programs that will involve the near simultaneous replacement of every leg of the aging triad, a major upgrade to the nuclear command and control system (NC2) that links nuclear forces with Presidential authority, and recapitalization of NNSA's aging warhead production infrastructure. There is little flexibility to absorb further triad modernization delay without affecting robust nuclear deterrence in future years. As former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said: either we replace aging platforms and systems or we must remove them from service—there is no other choice. In my remarks, I will address controversial pieces of the modernization program for the U.S. nuclear Triad and assess prospects for continued bipartisan support for its modernization in the new administration and Congress.

Dr. John R. Harvey is a physicist with over 40 years of experience working nuclear weapons and national security issues, first at LLNL, then at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Arms Control and in senior positions in the Departments of Defense (twice) and Energy. From 2009-2013, he served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs under then Undersecretary Ash Carter. He was Dr. Carter's "go to" person for the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, and for interactions with the NNSA on joint oversight of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. Dr. Harvey provided oversight to DoD acquisition programs to sustain and modernize nuclear weapons delivery systems and systems for their command and control. Since retiring from government service in 2013, he consults with, among others, the Defense Science Board, Institute for Defense Analysis, Los Alamos National Laboratory, U.S. Strategic Command's Advisory Panel on Nuclear Command and Control and NNSA's Defense Programs Advisory Committee.