Deterrence, the NPT, and the European Nuclear Debate

When the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference convenes this August, after more than a year-long delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it will undoubtedly feature a well-worn yet imbalanced debate over disarmament. Imbalanced in that the relationship between the NPT and nuclear deterrence is overlooked. Yet, history shows that the latter is integral to the former. Indeed, concerns about the stability of superpower deterrence are what inspired the United States and the Soviet Union to seek a non-proliferation treaty in the first place. The NPT was carefully constructed in the 1960's so as not to interfere with the already established practice of deterrence, including NATO nuclear sharing. A review of the treaty negotiations shows that nuclear deterrence is permitted by, compatible with, and reinforces the NPT. Those who seek to delegitimize deterrence thus risk the very foundation of the non-proliferation regime and international stability. Such recognition is vital to restoring greater balance in the nuclear weapons debate, including among some of our key NATO allies. This presentation will address these topics as well as the current state of the transatlantic deterrence community and potential implications for NATO's nuclear modernization.

Greg Giles is a Senior Director with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), with over 30 years' experience advising US Government decision makers on issues pertaining to deterrence, nonproliferation, and the Middle East. He has published widely and testified before Congress on these subjects. Most recently, Mr. Giles authored, "Deterrence and the NPT: Compatible and Reinforcing," in Survival, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00396338.2020.1792125, and,"Transatlantic Deterrence: Taking Stock and Looking Forward," in Europe's Evolving Deterrence Discourse, Amelia Morgan and Anna Péczeli, editors, Center for Global Security Research, forthcoming. Mr. Giles has guest lectured at the US Air Force and Army War Colleges, as well as the Saudi Arabian War College in Riyadh and the NATO Defense College in Rome. He is currently conducting a study on conventional-nuclear integration during the Cold War and its relevance for today's security environment.