Strategy in the Next Missile Age
A new missile age has begun, one with profound implications for U.S. national security. This era is manifest in a surge in the global supply and demand for a wide range of high-precision and high-velocity unmanned delivery systems and the means to counter them. Adversaries and allies alike are investing in advanced forms of air and missile delivery systems spanning a complex and nearly continuous threat spectrum across the characteristics of altitude, speed, propulsion type, and range. Some scholars have described the dynamics of the contemporary strategic environment in terms of a second nuclear age. But given the pace of change and the specter of non-nuclear strategic attack, it may be more fruitful to trace and frame security developments in terms of the characteristics of delivery systems rather than payload. Doing so helps assess the magnitude of these changes, their effect on nuclear and conventional deterrence, and what it means for military posture and planning. As developed here, today's new missile age is the latest of three periods, each distinguished by three factors: geopolitical context, technological developments, and the role and status of missile defenses.
Thomas Karako is a senior fellow with the International Security Program and the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he arrived in 2014. His research focuses on national security, missile defense, nuclear deterrence, and public law. For 2010–2011, he was an American Political Science Association Congressional Fellow, working with the professional staff of the House Armed Services Committee and the Strategic Forces Subcommittee on U.S. strategic forces policy, nonproliferation, and NATO.
Mr. Karako is also currently an adjunct professor in the Strategic Studies Program in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and a fellow with the Institute for Politics and Strategy of Carnegie Mellon University. He received his Ph.D. from Claremont Graduate University and his B.A. from the University of Dallas.
