Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

Neither the governments attempting to negotiate with North Korea, nor the drafters of the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, define what verifiable elimination of nuclear weapons and associated infrastructure would entail, whether in one country or in all. Designing sustainable, effective nuclear disarmament—of North Korea or any other nuclear-armed state—requires much more than dismantling warheads and controlling fissile material stocks. Disarming states would need to collectively agree what types and numbers of delivery systems (especially missiles) would be permissible, and what peaceful nuclear and space activities may remain during and after nuclear disarmament, and under what reassurance/monitoring conditions. The presenters will describe a logic that could inform a denuclearization agreement with North Korea and how to manage its retention of nuclear weapons-related capabilities. They will then explore comparable political and technical choices that would need to be made in the disarmament of other nuclear-armed states. These six challenges also comprise key issues in future arms control and nonproliferation negotiations.

George Perkovich is the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, overseeing the Technology and International Affairs Program and Nuclear Policy Program. He works primarily on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation issues; cyberconflict; and new approaches to international public-private management of strategic technologies. He is the author of the prize-winning book, India's Nuclear Bomb (University of California Press, 1999), and co-author of, Not War, Not Peace? Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism (Oxford University Press, 2016). He has been a member of the National Academy of Science's Committee on Arms Control and International Security, the Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on Nuclear Policy, and was a principal adviser to the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament.

Toby Dalton is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He works primarily on regional security in East and South Asia and the evolution of the global nuclear order. He is co-author (with George Perkovich) of Not War, Not Peace? Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism (Oxford University Press, 2016). Before joining Carnegie, he served in policy advisory positions at the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration, including a posting at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, Pakistan. He was a Luce Scholar in Seoul, South Korea.