Scenario-based Planning to Maintain the Credibility of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent Against Emerging Threats

Amb. Lehman and Maj Gen Chambers will present on the Threat Reduction Advisory Committee's paper, entitled "Report on Scenario-Based Planning to Maintain the Credibility of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent Against Emerging Threats." Our speakers will discuss the need for analytic tools that provide high-quality data to support the evidence-based decision making that we need to successfully tackle the complex nuclear deterrence challenges of the next 25 years. Such tools include simulations and war gaming to gain both experience and exploitable data, plus the incorporation of machine learning. They propose that if modern tools for deterrence analysis were put in place now for use during the next decade, Department of Defense could meaningfully aid decision makers to overcome the challenges surrounding the bloc modernization of nuclear deterrence forces as they transition from legacy systems to replacement systems.

New weapon delivery systems present different timelines of concern, and new sensors combined with machine learning and artificial intelligence transform what we may know or not know in a crisis. They recommend a roadmap for modeling, simulation, and gaming of the nuclear deterrence challenge that integrates analytic tools to generate high-quality, statistically significant data to support strategic-level decision making to optimize the deterrent and drives cost-effective acquisition of modeling and simulation. This would include both nuclear and conventional forces, Nuclear Command, Control and Communications (NC3)/C4ISR, across all domains, at every phase of confrontation and hostilities with nuclear-armed competitors. This roadmap would also cut across organizational boundaries and break down research and development, operational, and intelligence "stovepipes."

Ronald F. Lehman is the Counselor to the Director of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. For the State Department, Lehman Chairs the Governing Board of the International Science and Technology Center, an intergovernmental organization. For the Defense Department, Ron was one of the original members of the Defense Threat Reduction Advisory Committee and was its Chair from 2014 though 2019 having previously served as Vice Chair.

William A. Chambers USAF (retired) served in uniform for 35 years, culminating in duty as the Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U. S. Air Force, Washington D.C. In that role, he directed the policy, planning, advocacy, and assessment for Air Force nuclear weapon systems. Since retirement from active duty at IDA, William leads research teams focused on nuclear weapons policy and strategy as well as strategic force structure modernization and Nuclear Enterprise infrastructure; his team recently provided analysis that fulfilled a statutory requirement to examine the issue of presidential decision-making regarding nuclear weapons.