Delaying Doomsday: The Politics of Nuclear Reversal

Scholars and practitioners have long debated about the conditions under which states that have embarked on nuclear weapons programs choose to stop their pursuit. This book centers its theoretical analysis on how the international community bargains with proliferators to encourage reversal. It outlines a new theory of nuclear reversal that provides a systemic examination of the important role that external incentives—sanctions and rewards can play in nuclear negotiations, especially when the threat to use force remains 'on the table'. Specifically, this book argues that nuclear reversal is most likely when states are threatened with sanctions and offered face-saving rewards that help them withstand domestic political opposition. Underlying these negotiations is the shadow of military force. The possibility of military intervention incentivizes states to accept the agreement offered by the United States and end their nuclear pursuit. To test these implications, the study employs a unified, multi-method observational research design to identify patterns of behavior over time among all proliferators. In addition to quantitative analyses that systematically explores nuclear reversal historically, the book incorporates three in-depth case studies comparing the Indian, Iranian, and North Korean nuclear programs, using original interview and archival data. In addition to useful lessons and implications for U.S. and global nuclear counterproliferation policy, the book adjudicates the historic tension between 'carrots and sticks' in International Relations to explain some of the most famous failures and successes of counterproliferation, including recent challenges like North Korea and Iran.

Dr. Rupal N. Mehta is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Previously, she was Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow in the Belfer Center's International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University. Her research interests lie in international security and conflict, with a specialization in nuclear security and foreign policy. Dr. Mehta's first book, Delaying Doomsday: The Politics of Nuclear Reversal (Oxford University Press) explores the conditions under which states that have started nuclear weapons programs stop their pursuit. Her work has appeared or is forthcoming in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, the Journal of Strategic Studies, and The Washington Quarterly among others, and her commentary has been published in the New York Times, Washington Post, BBC News, War on the Rocks, International Studies Quarterly, and the Washington Post's Monkey Cage.