Maximum Pressure on Iran: Where do we go from here?

The United States has consolidated around a maximum pressure strategy to convince Iran to make fundamental changes to its nuclear program and entire foreign policy. Iran's refusal has included doubling down on those policies, including restarting the frozen or restricted aspects of its nuclear program—as well as regional activities that run the risk of provoking a broader conflict. In the meantime, the U.S. effort has upset its former partners in the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members plus Germany and created impetus to de-risk from U.S. economic leverage, including use of the dollar. All of these dynamics raise crucial questions: Is maximum pressure a viable approach with Iran? Can the sanctions effort be improved or modified to make it more effective? What are the off-ramps available both to Iran and the United States? How will this experience change international views of U.S. sanctions policy? Does this undermine the future use of U.S. sanctions in conflict situations? This seminar will address the Iran case and its future implications, both to Iran and the future of U.S. sanctions policy in general.

Richard Nephew is a nonresident senior fellow in the foreign policy program of Columbia University and affiliated with the arms control and non-proliferation initiative housed within the Brooking Institution's Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence. He is also a senior research scholar and program director at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Nephew's research focuses on the use of sanctions for deterrence and impact on present U.S. foreign policy challenges. Nephew also served as the principal deputy for Dan Fried, the inaugural coordinator for Sanctions Policy at the U.S. State Department. In addition, Nephew served as the lead sanctions expert for the U.S. team that negotiated with Iran over the 2015 nuclear agreement. He is the author of The Art of Sanctions (Columbia University Press, 2018).