From Zoom to Panorama: Remaking U.S. National Security Structures for 2020 and Beyond

In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. set about building the world's best—and most expensive—early warning and response systems. The sweeping reorganization consolidated many functions with the goal of "connecting the dots" to ensure that there would never be a third surprise attack like Pearl Harbor or 9/11. This new security apparatus, including a new Department of Homeland Security, a new Director of National Intelligence, and a new combatant command, Northern Command, to protect the homeland, has been remarkably successful in preventing a large-scale terrorist attack. While other nations continued to suffer mass-casualty terrorist attacks, the U.S. has only had the Boston Marathon bombing. But at what cost? To prevent terrorist attacks, the many parts of the U.S. government responsible for avoiding other types of surprise were put on zoom. The job was no longer to scan the world with a wide-angle lens, but to zoom in to any and all potential terrorist threats to the U.S. and its allies. This seminar will present three contentions that: (1) the disproportionate focus on terrorism and the Middle East, however necessary after 9/11, has not reduced surprise or the likelihood of strategic surprise; (2) the structure of the post-9/11 national security apparatus is outdated; and (3) the current decision-making and response mechanisms are inadequate to the more diffuse and nontraditional threats of the next 20 years.

Andrew Hoehn is senior vice president for Research and Analysis at the RAND Corporation. He is responsible for all U.S.-based research and analysis, quality assurance, and recruitment and oversight of RAND's 1600 research staff. Hoehn also serves as RAND's ethics and compliance officer. He previously served as RAND vice president and director of Project AIR FORCE (PAF), where he oversaw research and analyses on strategy, force employment, personnel and training, and resource management. Previously, Hoehn was the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy, where he was responsible for developing and implementing U.S. defense strategy, force planning and assessments, and long-range policy planning.