Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory



August 28, 2017

This project examines the efficacy of coercion in cyberspace. We develop a theory that cyber operations are a form of covert coercion typically seeking to send ambiguous signals or demonstrate resolve. Cyber Coercion from this perspective is neither as revolutionary nor as novel as it seems when evaluated with evidence. We examine cyber coercive strategies in their varying forms through quantitative analysis, finding that cyber disruptions, short-term and long-term espionage, and degradation operations all usually fail to produce political concessions. When states do compel a rival, which is measured as a change in behavior in the target that is strategically advantageous to the initiator, the cyber operation tends to occur alongside more traditional coercive instruments such as diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, and military threats and displays. Our findings suggest that before we develop recommendations for sound foreign policy responses to state-backed cyber intrusions or craft international frameworks that constrain the proliferation of politically-motivated malware, we should theoretically and empirically investigate cyber strategies and their efficacy.

Brandon Valeriano (Ph.D. Vanderbilt University) is the Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at the Marine Corps University. He also serves as a Senior Fellow in Cyber Security for the Niskanen Center. Dr. Valeriano has published dozens of articles in such outlets as the Journal of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, and Journal of Peace Research. His two most recent coauthored books are Cyber War versus Cyber Reality at Oxford University Press (2015) and Russian Coercive Diplomacy at Palgrave (2015) with Cyber Coercion forthcoming from Oxford. Ongoing research explores creating comprehensive cyber conflict data, external threats and video games, biological and psychological examinations of the cyber threat, and repression in cyberspace. Dr. Valeriano has written opinion and popular media pieces for such outlets as the Washington Post, Slate, Foreign Affairs, and Lawfare. He has provided testimony in front of both the United States Senate and the Parliament of the United Kingdom.