Russia’s Foreign Policy Goals, European Security and U.S. Strategy
Matthew Rojansky

October 18, 2016

Dangerously dysfunctional relations between Washington and Moscow have been blamed by the press, pundits and even the presidential candidates on the failure of U.S. policymakers to properly “read” Vladimir Putin and thus to predict the Kremlin’s supposedly strategic foreign policy agenda. However, rather than attempting to predict Putin’s next move or to de-code the meaning behind personnel shuffles at the Kremlin, policymakers and the analysts who support them would do better to pay more attention to Russia in a much broader sense. From the incompatibility of the “European Project” with the worldview of the country’s ruling elite, to the geopolitical reality Russia faces as a sprawling multi-ethnic state surrounded by dynamic rising powers, to worsening military tensions between Russia and NATO, there are deeper trends that are likely to shape Russian policy regardless of who is in the top job at the Kremlin. An appropriate U.S. strategy to address these challenges will emphasize not only strength and deterrence, but also adroit risk management, cross-sectoral analysis, and leadership by example. In other words, now is not a time to panic about the predictably unpredictable Russian threat, but rather to keep calm and carry on.

Rojansky is an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS, and serves as U.S. Executive Secretary for the Dartmouth Conference, a track-two U.S.-Russian conflict resolution initiative begun in 1960. He has lectured at colleges and universities throughout the United States, Russia and Europe and efforts to enhance shared security throughout the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian region.

Presentation available soon.