Asia’s Complex Nuclear Geometry
Chris Twomey

September 22, 2016

Modern scholars of East Asia suggest nuclear weapons give us reasons to be optimistic about peace in the region. This study will argue that these views are wrong; nuclear affairs in contemporary East Asia, characterized in important ways by multipolarity and complexity, will have a net destabilizing effect on the region. Rather than mitigate the problems of a rising China and a fluid multipolarity, the second nuclear exacerbate those challenges in Asia. The concept of nuclear and strategic triads helps to structure analysis of these dynamics. Additionally, diversification of strategic systems erode the distinction between nuclear and other weapons creating more slippery slopes of escalatory pathways and tangled red lines that undermine that basis for stability under the stability instability paradox. China plays a central role in this newly challenging strategic environment as Beijing sits at the fulcrum of several triangular security dilemmas in the strategic realm and possesses a diverse set of strategic capabilities. Asia’s strategic future looks grim.

Dr. Twomey focuses on Chinese foreign policy and East Asian security. He works with the Departments of Defense and State on a range of strategic and Asian security issues. He authored The Military Lens: Doctrinal Differences and Deterrence Failure in Sino-American Relations (Cornell University Press, 2010), and his work has appeared in journals such as Security Studies, Journal of Contemporary China, The Washington Quarterly, and Asian Survey. Dr. Twomey received his Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees from the University of California San Diego and his Ph.D. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Asia’s Complex Nuclear Geometry

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) sponsored this seminar entitled "Asia's Complex Nuclear Geometry" at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The seminar was presented by Chris Twomey on Sept. 22, 2016.

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