Nuclear-Backed “Little Green Men:”
Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis
Jacek Durkalec

Friday, August 28, 2015

This seminar is part of the ongoing Nuclear Crossroads Initiative. Following the lecture there will be a question and answer session. This is open to the Laboratory.

His latest report Nuclear-Backed “Little Green Men:” Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis analyzes sharp differences between nuclear signals sent by Russia and NATO during the Ukraine crisis. It argues that despite the fact that the Alliance responded in a very restrained manner to Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling and rightly avoided engaging in tit-for-tat, the crisis has exposed communication gaps and challenges to NATO’s deterrence and assurance. The seminar will be an opportunity to discuss the findings of the report, including NATO’s nuclear adaptations options beyond the approach taken so far.

An unprecedented amount of nuclear-related signals originating from the Kremlin, including statements, bomber flights, and exercises, demonstrates that during the Ukraine crisis Russia has deliberately sent nuclear messages to NATO. Russia’s nuclear muscle-flexing has been an integral part of Moscow’s approach to conflict, backing up the credibility and effectiveness of its hybrid warfare campaign. NATO has responded in a very restrained manner and rightly avoided engaging in tit-for-tat nuclear messaging with Russia. At the same time, however, the Ukraine crisis has exposed NATO’s communication gaps and corresponding challenges to the effectiveness of NATO’s nuclear deterrence and assurance. To adapt to the new nuclear landscape in Europe, the NATO Allies should consider rebalancing their thinking towards nuclear deterrence, a re-examination of their nuclear crisis-management tools and exercises, refreshing declaratory policy and re-designing their nuclear communication strategy.

Jacek Durkalec is the manager of the Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Project at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). He is also a Ph.D. candidate at the Institute of Political Science and International Relations, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland. He holds a master’s degree in International Relations from Jagiellonian University (2008). From 1 March to 31 August 2015, he is a visiting scholar in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, as part of the “Etiuda 2” doctoral scholarship awarded by the Polish National Science Centre. Mr. Durkalec has been working at PISM since July 2010, focusing on NATO’s defence and deterrence policy, nuclear and conventional arms control, missile defence, and WMD nonproliferation issues. Before joining PISM, he was a staff member in the Missile Defence Office of the Polish Ministry of National Defence from February 2009 to June 2010.

Nuclear-Backed 'Little Green Men:' Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) sponsored this seminar entitled “Nuclear-Backed 'Little Green Men:' Nuclear Messaging in the Ukraine Crisis” on Aug. 28, 2015, at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The seminar was presented by Jacek Durkalec, manager of the Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Project at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).

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