Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory



May 18, 2015

As part of the ongoing Nuclear Crossroads Initiative, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) is sponsoring a talk entitled “The Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Prospects for a Deal and Implications for Proliferation in the Middle East.” Following the lecture there will be a question and answer session. This is open to the Laboratory.

The political framework reached by P5+1 and Iranian negotiators in Lausanne on April 2nd provides the foundation for achieving a comprehensive agreement on the Iran nuclear issue. Significant progress has been made toward meeting key U.S. objectives: lengthening Iran’s “breakout time” via the uranium path to at least one year for at least ten years; blocking the plutonium path using the Arak heavy water reactor; and establishing a monitoring and inspection regime that can deter and detect a covert program. But critical issues remain, and success is far from guaranteed. Even if U.S. negotiating objectives are realized, the agreement will be heavily criticized, both domestically and by traditional U.S. Middle East friends. There has been wide speculation that, with or without an agreement, Iran’s nuclear program will trigger a wave a proliferation in the region. While there are grounds for concern, fears of additional states acquiring fuel-cycle or nuclear weapons capabilities are exaggerated. Interest by Middle Eastern countries in acquiring such capabilities will depend on their perceptions of the effectiveness of an Iran nuclear deal, of Iran’s future regional behavior, and of the reliability of U.S. commitments to their security. And even if regional states decide to “match” Iran, it is questionable whether they would have the technical resources to pursue an indigenous program or the ability to secure the necessary foreign assistance.

Robert Einhorn is a Senior Fellow with the Brookings Institution’s Arms Control and Nonproliferation Initiative. Before coming to Brookings in May 2013, Einhorn served as the State Department’s Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, a position created by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2009. Between 2001 and 2009, Einhorn was a Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he directed the CSIS Proliferation Prevention Program. Before coming to CSIS, he was Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation (1999-2001), Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs (1992-1999), and a member of the State Department Policy Planning Staff (1986-1992). Between 1972 and 1986, he held various positions at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, including ACDA’s representative to the strategic arms reduction talks with the Soviet Union.


Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Prospects for a Deal & Implications for Proliferation

As part of the ongoing Nuclear Crossroads Initiative, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) sponsored this talk by Robert Einhorn, entitled “The Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Prospects for a Deal and Implications for Proliferation in the Middle East,” on May 18, 2015, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

LLNL-VIDEO-672316