Regional Nuclear Powers: Deterrence Strategies, Escalation Pathways and Best U.S. Responses?
Dr. Jasen J. Castillo

November 20, 2014

As part of the Nuclear Crossroads Initiative, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) is hosting a talk entitled "Regional Nuclear Powers: Deterrence Strategies, Escalation Pathways and Best U.S. Responses." Following the lecture there will be a question and answer session. This seminar is open to the Laboratory.

Iran's possible drive to acquire nuclear weapons has raised alarm bells in several international capitals. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran highlights a growing strategic problem for the United States. If Iran establishes itself as a nuclear power, as North Korea did a few years ago, then the United States will confront yet one more country capable of countering its formidable conventional military capabilities. Not only will the U.S. need to consider the conventional balance when planning for regional intervention, but it will also need to evaluate the balance of nuclear forces. Any U.S effort to defend its friends and allies, therefore, must begin by asking how and under what conditions these potential adversaries might use their nuclear weapons in a confrontation. To better understand these problems, this paper addresses the following questions: What strategies could regional nuclear powers adopt to deter nuclear attacks? Similarly, what strategies could they pursue to deter conventional attacks before or during a conflict? What is the likelihood of nuclear escalation during a conventional conflict with regional powers? Finally, how should the U.S. respond to the first-use of nuclear weapons during a conventional conflict?

Jasen J. Castillo is an Associate Professor at Texas A&M University's George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service. He came to the Bush School after serving on the staff of the Policy Planning Office in the U.S. Department of Defense.

Regional Nuclear Powers: Deterrence Strategies, Escalation Pathways & Best U.S. Responses?

As part of the Nuclear Crossroads Initiative, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) sponsored this talk entitled "Regional Nuclear Powers: Deterrence Strategies, Escalation Pathways and Best U.S. Responses" by Jasen J. Castillo, associate professor at Texas A&M University's George H.W. Bush School of Government and Public Service.

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