Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) is sponsoring a talk entitled "Nuclear Superiority and Nuclear Crisis Outcomes." Following the lecture there will be a question and answer session. This is open to the Laboratory.

"What determines the outcome of crises between nuclear-armed states? Scholars and strategists have long debated whether nuclear superiority or the balance of resolve is the more important determinant of nuclear crisis outcomes. In recent scholarly research, Matthew Kroenig argues that a nuclear advantage increases a state's resolve in a crisis, improving its prospects for victory. Using a new dataset of fifty-two nuclear crisis dyads, he shows that states that enjoy nuclear superiority over their opponents are more than three times more likely to win nuclear crises than their nuclear inferior opponents. He also finds support for this claim in qualitative evidence from important historical cases. These findings are important for international relations theory and for recent policy debates about arms control, nuclear reductions, and nuclear force sizing."

Matthew Kroenig is Associate Professor and International Relations Field Chair in the Department of Government at Georgetown University and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at The Atlantic Council. He is an expert on defense policy and strategy, international relations theory, nuclear deterrence, nuclear proliferation, Iran, and counterterrorism. He is the author of several books including The Iranian Nuclear Threat: Choices and Consequences (forthcoming 2014) and Exporting the Bomb: Technology Transfer and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (2010), which received the International Studies Association┬╣s Best Book Award, Honorable Mention. His articles have appeared in such publications as American Political Science Review, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, International Organization, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today. He regularly provides commentary on BBC, CNN, C-SPAN, NPR, and other media outlets. He previously served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency and regularly consults with the defense, energy, and intelligence communities.

Matthew Kroenig of Georgetown University and Brent Scowcroft Center deliver the lecture "Nuclear Superiority and Nuclear Crisis Outcomes" at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Center for Global Security Research.