Recommended Reads

What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately

Retrench, Defend, Compete: Security America’s Future Against a Rising China by Charles L. Glaser (2026). In Retrench, Defend, Compete, Charles L. Glaser advances a thought-provoking strategy for securing vital US interests in the face of China's rise. Many believe China's ascent will drive it to war with the United States. Yet this is far from inevitable; geography and nuclear weapons should ensure US security. The real danger, Glaser contends, lies in East Asia's territorial disputes, especially over Taiwan. To reduce the risk of war, Glaser makes a bold case for ending US security commitments to Taiwan and carefully calibrating its policies on protecting South China Sea maritime features. The United States should also strengthen its alliances with Japan and South Korea and eliminate unnecessarily provocative nuclear and conventional weapons policies. These measures, Glaser argues, would defuse China's biggest security concerns while preserving America's core strategic interests. Fusing theoretical insights with policy analysis, Glaser lays out a distinctive and compelling approach for managing the world's most consequential geopolitical rivalry—before it's too late. (336 pages). 

Signing Away the Bomb: The Surprising Success of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime by Jeffrey M. Kaplow (2022). For more than fifty years, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the wider nuclear nonproliferation regime have worked to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Analysts and pundits have often viewed the regime with skepticism, repeatedly warning that it is on the brink of collapse, and the NPT lacks many of the characteristics usually seen in effective international institutions. Nevertheless, the treaty continues to enjoy near-universal membership and high levels of compliance. This is the first book to explain why the nonproliferation regime has been so successful, bringing to bear declassified documents, new data on regime membership and weapons pursuit, and a variety of analytic approaches. It offers important new insights for scholars of nuclear proliferation and international security institutions, and for policymakers seeking to strengthen the nonproliferation regime and tighten international constraints on the spread of nuclear weapons. (320 pages).

Cyber Persistence and Campaigning: TheFishe Logic and Art of Security Cyberspace by Michael P. Fischerkeller, Emily O. Goldan, and Richard J. Harknett (2026). The core argument of Cyber Persistence and Campaigning is straightforward: to avoid being drawn into unwanted crisis or armed conflict (or prevail in both if they emerge), policymakers must apply cyber resources through coherent continuous cyber campaigns that set and structure conditions and circumstances to their advantage. The optimal way for policymakers to do this is to conduct concurrent campaigns for cyber contingency and advantage in competition. Cyber resources are not optimized as substitutes for conventional or nuclear weapons in war, or for coercion in crisis settings. They are, rather, the anticipatory stage-setters for those contingencies. As such, they are critical to ensuring the military forces that deter and fight are always ready and able to do so, and they play a parallel, simultaneous role in advancing state interests short of those contingencies. This means that states seeking and sustaining cyber initiative will have the advantage across the competition-conflict spectrum over those that do not. Cyber persistence through campaigning combines a single logic with a 21st century artform. Those states that master this combination will thrive in the digital age. (472 pages).

Articles

“The Coming Quantum National Security Crisis” by Anne Neuberger (2026).The article argues that quantum technologies, especially quantum computing and sensing, will soon become a major national security threat because they could break widely used encryption and give militaries new ways to operate without GPS. It says China and Russia are already collecting encrypted data now so they can decrypt it later, while China is investing heavily in quantum research and building alliances through BRICS. The U.S. still leads in some areas and has started moving toward quantum-resistant cryptography, but the transition is incomplete and may not happen fast enough. The author recommends urgent action, including protecting the quantum supply chain, upgrading internet protocols to quantum-safe encryption, safeguarding private-sector intellectual property, and preparing contingency plans in case current encrypted data is exposed before defenses are ready. (8 pages).

"Washington’s Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan” by Mira Rapp-Hooper and Zach Cooper (2026).  The article argues that recent Trump administration moves, especially considering delays or reductions in arms sales to Taiwan and shifting U.S. force posture in Europe, have made Asian allies question whether Washington can still be relied on as their security backstop. Unlike Europe, which has started building backup arrangements, Asian allies such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines have no true Plan B because they lack NATO-like institutions and remain heavily dependent on the United States. The authors say these countries should respond by strengthening their own defense capabilities, expanding joint development and production, deepening minilateral cooperation and intelligence sharing, and building stronger defense-industrial ties with Europe. Even though these steps cannot replace the United States, they would help reduce vulnerability to Chinese pressure and prepare the region for a more unpredictable future. (7 pages).

“The Ideology Trap: China and the Limits of Cold War Analogies” by Eun A Jo and Jessica Chen Weiss.  What role do ideological differences play in great power relations? Existing studies often treat ideological differences as fixed variables that exacerbate frictions between great powers. Instead, we treat ideologies as dynamic systems of ideas that evolve through domestic contestation and international adaptation. Our framework separates ideological content—whether states believe that their ideology is universally applicable—from the scope of ideological promotion—to what extent states seek to promote their ideology abroad. Specifically, our typology distinguishes between ideological strategies that are universalist or particularist in content, and expansive or selective in their scope of promotion. We use this framework to show how states can shift strategies over time without altering their underlying ideological commitments. We apply this framework to the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin and Leonid Brezhnev and to China under Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping. Our case studies show that there was no single Cold War, and that contemporary China differs in important ways from the Soviet Union. (28 pages).

“Escalate to Survive?: Nuclear First Use in Contemporary Great Power Conflict” by Fiona S. Cunningham and Kristin Ven Bruusgaard (2025). Why do great powers believe it is necessary to have nuclear first-use options? What explains the different types of first-use options in the nuclear force postures of Russia and the United States? Why did China not develop a first-use option in the post-Cold War era? Existing literature focuses on whether great power nuclear strategies should entrench mutually assured destruction or compete for superiority, but it does not fully explain variation in first-use options. We compare the approaches to first use in the nuclear strategies of China, Russia, and the United States. Each of these great powers has different plans for both pursuing limited conflict objectives and countering conventional and geographic vulnerabilities, regime threats, and threats to allies, as well as different beliefs about damage limitation. Acute conventional and geographic vulnerabilities explain Russia's first-use options, which are optimized for state survival. Despite speculation that China might use nuclear weapons first to compel reunification with Taiwan, China has weak reasons to do so because it prefers non-nuclear means to achieve this objective. In contrast, the United States maintains options for first use, largely because of its extended deterrence commitments to allies and beliefs about damage limitation. These different approaches could fuel nuclear escalation in a conflict scenario. (53 pages).

“Building Tanks While the Ukrainians Master Drones” by Simon Shuster (2026). The article argues that Ukraine’s battlefield success with cheap, mass-produced drones has exposed how vulnerable tanks and other expensive armored systems have become, yet Western defense industries and governments are still slow to adapt. Through a visit to Rheinmetall, the author shows how major arms makers continue investing in traditional weapons like tanks and artillery even as drones destroy them in Ukraine and elsewhere, including in the war with Iran. The piece says Europe and NATO are trapped by procurement habits, bureaucracy, and spending rules that favor costly “exquisite” systems over faster, cheaper drone innovation. In the end, it suggests Ukraine has changed modern warfare, but Western militaries and defense firms have not fully learned the lesson. (13 pages).

What we’re re-reading given its importance today

​What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately

Bureacracies at War by Tyler Jost (2024). Why do states start conflicts they ultimately lose? Why do leaders possess inaccurate expectations of their prospects for victory? Jost examines how national security institutions shape the quality of bureaucratic information upon which leaders base their choice for conflict – which institutional designs provide the best counsel, why those institutions perform better, and why many leaders fail to adopt them. Jost argues that the same institutions that provide the best information also empower the bureaucracy to punish the leader. Thus, miscalculation on the road to war is often the tragic consequence of how leaders resolve the trade-off between good information and political security. Employing an original cross-national data set and detailed explorations of the origins and consequences of institutions inside China, India, Pakistan, and the United States, this book explores why bureaucracy helps to avoid disaster, how bureaucratic competition produces better information, and why institutional design is fundamentally political (408 pages). 

Polarization and International Politics: How Extreme Partisanship Threatens Global Stability by Rachel Myrick (2025). Polarization is a defining feature of politics in the United States and many other democracies. Yet although there is much research focusing on the effects of polarization on domestic politics, little is known about how polarization influences international cooperation and conflict. Democracies are thought to have advantages over nondemocratic nations in international relations, including the ability to keep foreign policy stable across time, credibly signal information to adversaries, and maintain commitments to allies. Does domestic polarization affect these “democratic advantages”? In this timely book, Rachel Myrick argues that polarization reshapes the nature of constraints on democratic leaders, which in turn erodes the advantages democracies have in foreign affairs. Drawing on a range of evidence, including cross-national analyses, observational and experimental public opinion research, descriptive data on the behavior of politicians, and interviews with policymakers, Myrick develops metrics that explain the effect of extreme polarization on international politics and traces the pathways by which polarization undermines each of the democratic advantages. Myrick’s account links the effects of polarization on democratic governance to theories of international relations, integrating work across the fields of international relations, comparative politics, and American politics to explore how patterns of domestic polarization shape the international system. (336 pages).

The Insiders’ Game: How Elites Make War and Peace by Elizabeth N. Saunders (2024). One of the most widely held views of democratic leaders is that they are cautious about using military force because voters can hold them accountable, ultimately making democracies more peaceful. How, then, are leaders able to wage war in the face of popular opposition, or end conflicts when the public still supports them? The Insiders’ Game sheds light on this enduring puzzle, arguing that the primary constraints on decisions about war and peace come from elites, not the public. Saunders focuses on three groups of elites—presidential advisers, legislators, and military officials—to show how the dynamics of this insiders’ game are key to understanding the use of force in American foreign policy. She explores how elite preferences differ from those of ordinary voters, and how leaders must bargain with elites to secure their support for war. Saunders provides insights into why leaders start and prolong conflicts the public does not want, but also demonstrates how elites can force leaders to change course and end wars (344 pages).

Articles

“Conventional Deterrence of Nuclear Use” by Adam Mount (2025). Some academic literature and U.S. policy documents suggest that conventional deterrence is weaker than nuclear deterrence. But recent developments in U.S. policy suggest that conventional forces are assuming a larger role in deterring limited nuclear use. This article explores why and how U.S. officials may turn to conventional weapons to deter a nuclear attack. As conventional weapons are becoming increasingly capable of producing strategic effects in response to a nuclear attack, U.S. officials may be more likely to consider conventional deterrence as a credible option to deter those attacks. In some cases, U.S. officials are likely to prefer conventional options to avoid the costs, risks, and uncertainty of nuclear threats. To test the theory, the article presents the results of a series of individual, scenario-based “tabletop interviews” with former senior U.S. officials who might plausibly have been consulted on a decision about how to deter a North Korean nuclear attack. The results demonstrate that U.S. officials increasingly consider conventional deterrence of nuclear use to be a viable and valuable capability. (34 pages).

“U.S. Space Power and Alliance Dynamics in the Cold War” by Aaron Bateman (2025). U.S. space power has long been anchored to terrestrial geography. In the Cold War, the United States depended on a global network of facilities to track and communicate with military, intelligence, and civilian satellites. But it was difficult to secure access to foreign territories that were both in view of satellites as they passed overhead and politically reliable. Drawing on declassified Australian, British, and U.S. documents, this article details the largely invisible role of allies in U.S. space power. To mitigate the political challenges associated with basing space facilities in non-allied countries, the United States turned to Australia and Britain. But using allied territories was not risk free. Postcolonial independence movements threatened the security of tenure at key U.S. space tracking stations located in British territories in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, Australian concerns that U.S. space facilities were nuclear targets and violated Australia’s sovereignty created a domestic political uproar that strained the U.S.-Australia alliance. Political upheaval, even in allied states, was a significant vulnerability for U.S. space capabilities. Mitigating these political risks thus became a top U.S. foreign policy priority. (39 pages).

"Asia After America How U.S. Strategy Failed—and Ceded the Advantage to China” by Zach Cooper (2026).  The article argues that the U.S. “pivot to Asia” has effectively failed, because Washington never matched its ambitious rhetoric with the economic and governance investments needed to complement its military presence and counter China’s rise. Of the pivot’s three pillars, only security received sustained attention, while trade initiatives such as the TPP collapsed, protectionism grew, and democracy and anticorruption efforts either alienated partners or were abandoned, undermining U.S. credibility. As domestic divisions and global distractions limited American capacity, U.S. strategy quietly narrowed to defending a thin “first island chain” around Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, leaving much of South, Southeast, and mainland Asia to deepen ties with Beijing. The author contends that a broader, well resourced regional strategy is no longer realistic, so the United States will have to accept a form of retrenchment, focus on shoring up this narrower defensive line with close allies, and manage hard choices on alliances, nuclear issues, and deterrence, even though this may not be enough to prevent expanding Chinese influence (20 pages).

“Allies and Access: Implications of an American Turn Away from Alliances” by Rachel Metz (with Austin Carson and Paul Poast).  A defining feature of the post-1945 international system is the American network of allies and partners that has underpinned its global power. Recent developments within the United States and in the international system have severely strained that alliance network. If it collapses, what is at stake? Existing scholarship in International Relations highlights losses in aggregated military capabilities, reduced diplomatic support, and lost trade. In this essay we review these benefits and another that has been overlooked: ally-enabled access. Access refers to permission from allies and partners to engage in military and intelligence missions within their borders on their territory, through their airspace, or in their territorial waters. Access via America’s allies and security partners has enabled Washington to use foreign sovereign spaces for military logistics, military operations, and foreign surveillance to overcome the tyranny of distance. Examples include permission from allies and partners in the Middle East to allow the US Air Force to fly from their bases to strike targets in Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11, and US intelligence installations built and operated by permission from Pakistani, Turkish, and Japanese territory during the Cold War. We describe the broad functions of alliances and show how access has been key to projection of American military and intelligence power at a global scale. Perhaps limiting or ending America’s global hegemonic role is desirable; perhaps it is dangerous. We argue that accounting for the contributions of access made by allies and security partners is critical if scholars, policymakers, and publics are to properly assess what is at stake in an American turn away from alliances.

What we’re re-reading given its importance today

What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately

Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War by Chris Kirchoff and Raj Shah (2024). This book explores the groundbreaking collaboration between the U.S. Department of Defense and the private tech sector, particularly Silicon Valley, to modernize and innovate military capabilities. Drawing on their firsthand experience leading the Defense Innovation Unit, the authors examine how emerging technologies—especially artificial intelligence—are reshaping the landscape of warfare and national security. The book highlights both the opportunities and challenges of integrating cutting-edge commercial innovations into the military, emphasizing the urgent need for effective partnerships and agile adaptation to maintain America’s strategic edge (336 pages). 

Retrench, Defend, Compete: Securing America's Future Against a Rising China by Charles L. Glaser (2025). Glaser presents a strategic framework for safeguarding key U.S. interests amid China's growing power. Challenging the common belief that conflict between the two nations is inevitable, Glaser argues that factors like geography and nuclear deterrence provide a foundation for U.S. security. He identifies territorial disputes in East Asia, particularly over Taiwan, as the primary sources of potential conflict. To lower the risk of war, Glaser advocates for ending U.S. security guarantees to Taiwan, adopting a more measured approach to South China Sea policies, reinforcing alliances with Japan and South Korea, and revising provocative military postures. Through a blend of theory and practical policy recommendations, Glaser offers a distinctive strategy for navigating the complex U.S.-China rivalry while protecting America's vital interests (336 pages).

The Remote Revolution: Drones and Modern Statecraft by Erik Lin-Greenberg (2025). Lin-Greenberg reveals how drones are reshaping international security in unexpected ways. While new technologies like drones are often thought to make crises and wars more likely by lowering the risks and costs of military action, Lin-Greenberg argues that drone operations are actually less prone to escalate into major conflicts compared to missions involving traditional, crewed vehicles. Drawing on evidence from wargames, surveys, and real-world cases from the U.S. and Israel, he demonstrates that drones help states gather better intelligence, reduce provocations to national honor, and make leaders less likely to retaliate aggressively when drones are targeted. Lin-Greenberg concludes that drones, rather than destabilizing global security, add new steps to the escalation ladder and fundamentally change the nature of statecraft, making this book essential for understanding the growing impact of unmanned technologies on international politics (252 pages).

Articles

Explaining the Proliferation of Nuclear Delivery Vehicles by Debak Das (2025). This article explores how and why nuclear delivery vehicles—such as missiles and aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads—proliferate despite international non-proliferation efforts. The author identifies a permissive environment within the global non-proliferation regime that enables the spread of these technologies. Three main factors drive this dynamic: first, the dual-use nature of delivery technologies, which often have both civilian and military applications; second, ambiguity within the non-proliferation regime regarding what constitutes a “nuclear weapon,” making it difficult to regulate related technologies; and third, the lack of legally binding international legislation specifically addressing the transfer and development of nuclear delivery systems. Drawing on newly declassified archival materials from India, the UK, France, and the US, Das demonstrates that these loopholes have allowed states to acquire nuclear delivery technology even while publicly supporting non-proliferation. Das illustrates this argument through historical case studies, such as India’s procurement of nuclear-capable Jaguar aircraft from the UK and missile and space technology from France. By analyzing these examples, the article sheds light on the various pathways that future proliferators might exploit to develop or obtain nuclear delivery systems, offering important insights for strengthening the international non-proliferation regime. (16 pages).

“Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits” by Herbert Lin (2025). Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning (ML), has transformed computing, offering potential benefits in the nuclear enterprise, which encompasses weapons, delivery systems, platforms, and command and control infrastructure. While AI can enhance efficiency in areas like predictive maintenance and operational planning, its integration into the nuclear enterprise poses significant risks, some of which are inherent in the nature of ML. Five principles should guide AI's responsible application in a nuclear weapons context: maintaining meaningful human control in nuclear decision-making processes; evaluating AI risks within a nation’s broader nuclear posture; recognizing the challenges of verifying international agreements on AI restrictions; managing risks through self-imposed limitations; and leveraging AI to enhance human oversight. While AI offers opportunities to improve nuclear surety and operational efficiency in areas like planning and predictive maintenance, its deployment must prioritize minimizing catastrophic risks and preserving human judgment in critical decision-making processes (12 pages).

"Decoding China's Industrial Policies” by Hanming Fang, Ming Lu, and Guanglu Lu (2025).  This paper explores China’s industrial policies from 2000 to 2022 by employing large language models (LLMs) to extract and analyze rich information from a comprehensive dataset of 3 million documents issued by central, provincial, and municipal governments. Through careful prompt engineering, multistage extraction and refinement, and rigorous verification, the authors use LLMs to classify the industrial policy documents and extract structured information on policy objectives, targeted industries, policy tones (supportive or regulatory/suppressive), policy tools, implementation mechanisms, and intergovernmental relationships, etc. Combining these newly constructed industrial policy data with micro-level firm data, the authors document four sets of facts about China's industrial policy that explore the following questions: What are the economic and political foundations of the targeted industries? What policy tools are deployed? How do policy tools vary across different levels of government and regions, as well as over the phases of an industry's development? What are the impacts of these policies on firm behavior, including entry, production, and productivity growth? The authors also explore the political economy of industrial policy, focusing on top-down transmission mechanisms, policy persistence, and policy diffusion across regions (73 pages).

“So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan” by Jonathan D. Caverly (2025).  China and the United States are locked in an intensifying security competition, much of it revolving around—but increasingly transcending—Taiwan's continued autonomy. The operational value of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan has been cited as one reason for the US military to concentrate on stopping unification by force. Using a simple, replicable, three-component model of a “kill chain,” this article compares the potential effect of Chinese military capabilities, with and without Taiwan, on the shape and size of the contested zone in which US and allied air and naval forces would operate in wartime. The article draws three conclusions. First, because China already poses a significant military threat to US sea control and allied territory, the transformation of Taiwan into a fully pacified, militarized Chinese territory would make little difference to the broader military balance. Second, Chinese wartime space capabilities play a greater role in kill-chain effectiveness than any piece of territory. Third, even if a forcibly united Taiwan improves China’s ability to target US naval ships, this scenario only matters if there are ships left to target. Optimizing the US military for Taiwan’s defense risks undermining US and allied capabilities for a wider and lengthier conflict. Finally, the article recommends steps to defend Taiwan that would maintain an invasion as China’s—and not the United States’—“pacing scenario.”

What we’re re-reading given its importance today

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What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately

Orders of Exclusion: Great Powers and the Strategic Sources of Foundational Rules in International Relations by Kyle Lascurettes (2025). The motivations behind why and when powerful countries seek to change the international order—the set of rules guiding global politics—are increasingly relevant in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. Recent actions by the Trump administration, which showed disregard for the established liberal international order, and the growing influence of China, which may seek to reshape the order to its advantage, have intensified debates about the forces driving great powers to alter global rules. While previous research often emphasized consensus and inclusivity in the formation of international orders, Lascurettes presents a contrasting view. He argues that dominant powers are primarily motivated by exclusion when they seek to enact major changes. These powers act when they perceive significant new threats—whether from rival states or ideological movements—and aim to exclude these threats from gaining further influence. According to Lascurettes, the creation and rewriting of foundational international rules is less about cooperation and more about strategic efforts to contain or block perceived adversaries. This exclusionary approach, he asserts, has been a consistent feature of international order building for over three centuries, representing a continuation of traditional power politics through the crafting of global rules. (339 pages).

America’s Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition by Ali Wyne (2025). The prevailing view in U.S. foreign policy circles is that America must adapt to a new era of “great-power competition,” particularly in response to rising challenges from China and Russia. After the Cold War, the United States enjoyed a period of dominance but became distracted by conflicts in the Middle East. Now, with its influence being tested by two authoritarian rivals, the question arises: how should the U.S. respond? In his analysis, Ali Wyne critically examines the concept of great-power competition as a guiding strategy for U.S. foreign policy. He cautions that framing policy in these terms could make the United States overly defensive and reactive, allowing rivals to dictate its actions. Wyne urges Washington to avoid extremes—neither complacency nor alarmism—and instead adopt a balanced approach that selectively contests Chinese and Russian moves without letting them set America’s agenda. By analyzing the dynamics of a rising China, a disruptive Russia, and the growing partnership between them, Wyne argues that the U.S. faces not just a challenge, but an opportunity. He advocates for a confident, proactive strategy that manages these global shifts while focusing on renewal both domestically and internationally. (224 pages).

The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma by Reid B.C. Pauly (2025). Pauly offers a new perspective on why coercive strategies in international politics often fail, even when employed by powerful states. Contrary to expectations, strong states succeed in coercion only about one-third of the time. Pauly argues that this is largely because targets of coercion fear they will be punished regardless of whether they comply with demands—a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. This dynamic discourages compliance, as targets see little incentive to obey if punishment seems inevitable either way. Pauly explores this logic through case studies of nuclear counterproliferation efforts involving South Africa, Iraq, Libya, and Iran. He identifies an “assurance dilemma” for coercers: as threats become more credible, promises not to punish upon compliance become less believable. Without credible assurances, targets may resist, expecting negative consequences no matter their actions. For coercion to be effective, states must convince targets not only that noncompliance will bring punishment, but also that compliance will bring safety. Pauly’s analysis challenges the assumption that simply making tougher threats leads to success, offering valuable insights for policymakers using coercive strategies in foreign affairs. (252 pages).

Articles

Politically Unthinkable? The Missing Dimension Of Nuclear Use Scenarios by Jeffrey Michaels (2025). This article critically examines the foundations of nuclear deterrence strategies, which are based on hypothetical scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons. Despite the centrality of these scenarios, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since 1945. Michaels questions why nuclear use appears plausible in strategic scenarios but not in real-world practice. The article suggests that traditional scenarios often overlook the significant political challenges and decision-making barriers involved in actually crossing the nuclear threshold. By analyzing Cold War-era American debates about the possibility of a Soviet ‘first strike,’ the article highlights the limitations of focusing solely on technical aspects—such as weapon capabilities and delivery systems—when evaluating nuclear use scenarios. Instead, Michaels argues for a new approach to scenario design and critique, one that incorporates the political dynamics and constraints observed during actual crises and confrontations between nuclear states. Including these political factors would likely alter the perceived utility and credibility of deterrence strategies, making them more realistic and relevant. Ultimately, Michaels calls for a more nuanced understanding of nuclear deterrence, one that recognizes the complex interplay of technical and political considerations in shaping state behavior and strategic planning. (18 pages).

Allies as Armaments: Explaining the Specialization of State Military Capabilities by J. Andres Gannon (2025). This article explores why states often under-produce certain military capabilities while over-producing others, potentially leaving themselves exposed to risks. It argues that alliances play a key role in this dynamic by allowing states to safely specialize in specific military areas, knowing that their allies can compensate for any deficiencies. By analyzing detailed data on military capabilities, the study introduces a new way to measure military specialization and finds that states with strong alliance partners are more likely to focus their military resources rather than maintaining a broad, self-sufficient force. This challenges traditional views that see internal military buildup and reliance on allies as opposing strategies, showing instead that alliances can enable both specialization and diversification. The findings have significant implications for debates about how countries share defense responsibilities and point to new directions for research on military planning and alliance effects. (30 pages).

From Assurance to Resilience: Adapting NATO’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy by Tomáš Nagy (March 2025) Nagy examines how NATO’s nuclear strategy must evolve in response to recent security challenges, especially those posed by Russia’s aggression and nuclear signaling. Nagy argues that the return of high-intensity conflict in Europe, coupled with doubts about the reliability of transatlantic commitments, has made NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture more important than ever. The paper emphasizes that NATO must move beyond simply assuring allies of its protection and instead build resilience into its nuclear deterrence policy. Nagy proposes that resilience should be developed across three key areas: capabilities, resolve, and communication. This means not only maintaining credible nuclear forces, but also strengthening the political will to use them if necessary, and improving how NATO communicates its deterrence intentions to both allies and adversaries. By focusing on resilience, NATO can adapt to a more unpredictable security environment, deter adversaries more effectively, and reinforce internal unity and public confidence within the Alliance. Ultimately, Nagy’s analysis underscores the need for a comprehensive and adaptive nuclear policy that addresses both external threats and internal cohesion, ensuring NATO’s continued credibility and effectiveness in the face of evolving nuclear risks. (24 pages).

How to Survive the New Nuclear Age by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi (2025). Narang and Vaddi analyze the growing complexities and dangers of today’s nuclear landscape. They argue that the traditional nuclear order—characterized by clear rules, arms control agreements, and relatively stable deterrence—is eroding. More states are acquiring nuclear capabilities, and existing nuclear powers are modernizing their arsenals, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation. Narang and Vaddi highlight the weakening of arms control frameworks, such as the collapse of key treaties, and the emergence of new technologies that blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare. They contend that the United States and its allies must adapt to this more volatile environment by strengthening deterrence, investing in missile defenses, and revitalizing diplomatic efforts to manage proliferation. The authors emphasize the need for innovative arms control initiatives and improved crisis communication channels to reduce the risks of accidental or inadvertent nuclear conflict. Ultimately, Narang and Vaddi warn that complacency is dangerous in the face of proliferating nuclear risks, and they call for a comprehensive, flexible strategy to ensure national and global security in an increasingly unpredictable nuclear age. (25 pages)

Beware the Europe You Wish For: The Downsides and Dangers of Allied Independence by Celeste A. Wallander (2025). Wallander examines the potential risks associated with a more independent European defense posture, separate from the United States and NATO. Wallander argues that while calls for European strategic autonomy are often motivated by a desire for burden-sharing and reduced American involvement, such independence could undermine the stability and effectiveness of the transatlantic alliance. She warns that a Europe acting independently might lack the military capabilities, coordination, and political unity necessary to deter common threats, potentially emboldening adversaries like Russia. Wallander also highlights the risk of divergence in threat perceptions and security priorities between the U.S. and Europe, which could weaken collective defense and reduce the credibility of deterrence. Furthermore, she notes that the process of building independent European defense structures could create bureaucratic duplication, waste resources, and strain diplomatic relations. Rather than pursuing separation, Wallander advocates for strengthening NATO and maintaining close U.S.-European cooperation. She concludes that allied unity and integrated defense planning are essential for addressing shared security challenges, and cautions against the unintended consequences of pursuing European independence in security affairs. The article ultimately underscores the importance of transatlantic solidarity for global stability. (20 pages).

What we’re re-reading given its importance today

Israel and the Bomb by Avner Cohen (1999). Israel and the Bomb provides the first comprehensive political history of Israel’s nuclear program, moving beyond speculation to draw on thousands of newly declassified American and Israeli documents and over one hundred interviews with key figures. Cohen reveals that Israel became a nuclear-armed state just before the 1967 Six-Day War, yet has maintained a deliberate policy of “opacity”—refusing to confirm or deny its nuclear capability. The book focuses on the pivotal period from 1950 to 1970, tracing how David Ben-Gurion’s vision for a nuclear Israel was realized. Cohen details the establishment of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission in 1952, the crucial partnership with France for advanced technology, and the failure of U.S. intelligence to recognize the Dimona Project’s true purpose. He also examines the secret negotiations between President Nixon and Prime Minister Meir that cemented Israel’s ambiguous nuclear stance. Cohen analyzes the strategic, political, and diplomatic reasons behind Israel’s secrecy, including fears of Arab reaction, domestic debate, and U.S. nonproliferation pressures. Israel and the Bomb illuminates the complexities of Israel’s nuclear history and policy, offering vital insights for those interested in nuclear proliferation, Middle Eastern politics, Israeli history, and U.S.-Israeli relations. (328 pages).

The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate by Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N Waltz (2012). Sagan and Waltz present an influential discussion on the consequences of nuclear proliferation. The book is structured as a debate between two leading scholars with contrasting views. Waltz, representing the “proliferation optimist” perspective, argues that the spread of nuclear weapons can actually promote stability and peace. According to Waltz, nuclear-armed states are deterred from going to war due to the catastrophic consequences of nuclear conflict, making the world safer as more states acquire these weapons.In contrast, Sagan, the “proliferation pessimist,” contends that the spread of nuclear weapons increases the risk of accidents, unauthorized use, and escalation during crises. Sagan emphasizes problems such as organizational failures, misperceptions, and the possibility of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of unstable regimes or non-state actors. The book explores historical case studies, theoretical arguments, and policy implications, offering readers a nuanced understanding of the nuclear proliferation debate. (288 pages).

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What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately

The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon by Ankit Panda (2025). In this new book, Ankit Panda explores the enduring and emerging factors that are contributing to this new nuclear age. From strained great power ties to complex multipolar dynamics and the precipitous decline of arms control, he shows how our coexistence with the bomb is becoming more complicated and perilous. The prospect of nuclear escalation is again shaping how political decision-makers and military establishments around the world think and act. But unlike the peril of the Cold War, a greater number of nuclear players and a plethora of new technologies, including AI and exotic new weapons, make the search for stability far from straightforward. Managing the risks of a nuclear confrontation, he argues, will require new urgency and thinking to pull us back from the precipice of global catastrophe (288 pages).

Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information-Age Weapons in International Security by Fiona Cunningham (2025). How can states use military force to achieve their political aims without triggering a catastrophic nuclear war? Among the states facing this dilemma of fighting limited wars, only China has given information-age weapons such a prominent role. While other countries have preferred the traditional options of threatening to use nuclear weapons or fielding capabilities for decisive conventional military victories, China has instead chosen to rely on offensive cyber operations, counterspace capabilities, and precision conventional missiles to coerce its adversaries. In Under the Nuclear Shadow, Fiona Cunningham examines this distinctive aspect of China’s post–Cold War deterrence strategy, developing an original theory of “strategic substitution.” When crises with the United States highlighted the inadequacy of China’s existing military capabilities, Cunningham argues, China pursued information-age weapons that promised to rapidly provide credible leverage against adversaries. Drawing on hundreds of original Chinese-language sources and interviews with security experts in China, Cunningham provides a rare and candid glimpse from Beijing into the information-age technologies that are reshaping how states gain leverage in the twenty-first century (400 pages).

Age of Deception: Cybersecurity as a Secret Weapon by Jon R. Lindsay (2025). At the heart of cybersecurity is a paradox: cooperation enables conflict. In Age of Deception, Jon R. Lindsay shows how widespread trust in cyberspace enables espionage and subversion. The dark arts have long been part of global politics, but digital systems expand their scope and scale. Yet success in secret statecraft depends on political context, not just sophisticated technology. Lindsay provides a general theory of intelligence performance—the analogue to military performance in battle—to explain why spies and hackers alike depend on clandestine organizations and vulnerable institutions (288 pages).

Articles

Arms Control is Not Dead Yet: America Should Pursue Parallel Nuclear Negotiations with China and Russia by Rose Gottemoeller  (2025). This article emphasizes the urgent need for the United States to engage in nuclear arms control negotiations with Russia and China to prevent a dangerous arms race and maintain global stability. With the New START Treaty set to expire in February 2026 and Russia halting its implementation due to geopolitical tensions, the article advocates for extending its limits and negotiating new agreements to include all nuclear warheads and advanced delivery systems. Simultaneously, the U.S. should initiate talks with China, whose rapidly modernizing nuclear arsenal poses growing concerns, focusing on transparency, mutual restraint, and banning destabilizing systems like fractional orbital bombardment. Gottemoeller argues that parallel negotiations with both nations, coupled with reinforcing U.S. commitments to allies, could avert a costly arms race and reduce the risk of nuclear escalation (14 pages).

Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War by Michael Hirsch (2025). The article highlights Donald Trump's longstanding concern with preventing nuclear conflict, a focus that dates back to the 1980s when he ambitiously proposed ending the Cold War as a self-appointed ambassador. Throughout his political career, Trump has consistently emphasized the dangers of nuclear weapons, calling them "the biggest problem in the world" and advocating for their global elimination. During his presidency, he reiterated these concerns, notably before the 2018 Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin, and has continued to warn about the risks of nuclear escalation, including the prospect of World War III, while questioning the need for new nuclear weapons given existing arsenals (16 pages).

The Age of American Unilateralism: How a Rogue Superpower Will Remake the Global Order by Michael Beckley (2025). This article explores the United States' shift away from liberal internationalism toward a more unilateral, self-serving foreign policy. This transformation, driven by structural forces such as demographic changes, automation, and frustrations with global leadership, has positioned the U.S. as a "rogue superpower" capable of leveraging its economic, military, and technological dominance to revise or abandon global rules. Beckley argues that while the liberal order succeeded in overcoming past threats, its triumphs have created burdens, empowered adversaries like China and Russia, and fractured authority in global institutions. As autocracies militarize and allies struggle to keep pace, the U.S. faces growing incentives to disengage, bolstered by new technologies that enable remote strikes and economic self-sufficiency. Beckley warns that reckless unilateralism risks destabilizing the global order, but suggests a strategic alternative: consolidating a free-world bloc to contain adversaries, deepen economic alliances, and channel rivalry into rebuilding domestic infrastructure and industry. Ultimately, the article advocates for a focused strategy that balances U.S. interests with global stability (15 pages).

New Nuclear Responsibility by John Pendleton, Ariel (Eli) Levite, and Toby Dalton. The article explores the emerging nuclear energy renaissance driven by technological innovation, increasing energy demands from AI-powered data centers, and bipartisan political support in the United States. New nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced modular reactors (AMRs), promise safer, cheaper, and more versatile applications compared to traditional large-scale plants. Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are investing in nuclear power as both customers and developers, while governments and private capital cautiously support the sector. Despite optimism, the industry faces persistent challenges such as supply chain gaps, workforce shortages, regulatory hurdles, waste management, and security risks. The article emphasizes the need for responsible stewardship by stakeholders to address these issues and ensure nuclear power’s long-term viability as a clean and reliable energy source amidst global competition and evolving energy demands (8 pages).

Game On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms Control by Heather Williams et.al. The war in Ukraine has created an inflection point for Euro-Atlantic security. With the New START Treaty expiring in 2026 and no clear successor in sight, arms control as we know it is at risk of ending. This report by CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) set out to explore prospects for arms control with Russia following the end of the conflict in Ukraine. The study used an alternative futures methodology to identify consistent trends along with potential moments of opportunity for strengthening strategic stability and arms control.  In nearly all future scenarios, the findings reveal that competition with Russia will likely continue after the Ukraine conflict and Europe will emerge as a key player in regional strategic stability. The United States and its NATO allies must consistently signal openness to arms control while enhancing deterrence to manage competition in an increasingly uncertain security environment (43 pages).

Why Young South Koreans Are Cooling on the Bomb by James D. Kim. This article explores the generational divide in South Korea's nuclear armament debate. Older generations, shaped by memories of the Korean War and Cold War-era vulnerabilities, strongly support nuclear weapons as a means of self-reliance and protection against North Korea, driven by worst-case thinking and distrust in external guarantees. In contrast, younger generations, raised in a globally integrated and prosperous South Korea, view nuclear weapons as unnecessary and counterproductive, prioritizing global standards, international reputation, and domestic challenges over military threats. While the debate is currently dominated by older voices in politics and media, the growing influence of the "MZ Generation" may shift public opinion and policy in the future, though their stance could change if global nonproliferation norms weaken or nuclearization gains prestige internationally. Ultimately, the article highlights the importance of amplifying younger perspectives in shaping South Korea’s long-term security decisions (7 pages).

What we’re re-reading given its importance today

The Strategy of Conflict by Thomas Schelling (1981). This book is a foundational work in game theory and strategic thinking, emphasizing the role of communication, bargaining, and commitment in conflict resolution and negotiation. Schelling explores how individuals and groups can achieve cooperative outcomes even in competitive scenarios by leveraging strategic behavior, credible commitments, and shared expectations. He introduces concepts such as focal points, the importance of signaling, and the use of threats and promises to influence opponents' decisions. The book also examines the dynamics of deterrence, particularly in the context of Cold War nuclear strategy, highlighting the paradoxical role of uncertainty and the strategic value of limiting one's own options to enhance credibility. Overall, Schelling's insights bridge economics, psychology, and political science, offering practical tools for understanding and managing conflicts in various domains (328 pages).

Every War Must End by Fred Charles Iklé (2005). This book explores the difficult and often painful process through which wars in the modern age have been brought to a close and what this process means for the future. Iklé considers a variety of examples from twentieth-century history and examines specific strategies that effectively "won the peace," including the Allied policy in Germany and Japan after World War II (208 pages).

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The listing herein of any non-LLNL publication does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the U.S. government or the Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC.

What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately

Weapons in Space: Technology, Politics, and the Rise and Fall of the Strategic Defense Initiative by Aaron Bateman (2024). In this book, Aaron Bateman draws from recently declassified American, European, and Soviet documents to give an insightful account of SDI, situating it within a new phase in the militarization of space after the superpower détente fell apart in the 1970s. In doing so, Bateman reveals the largely secret role of military space technologies in late–Cold War US defense strategy and foreign relations. In contrast to existing narratives, Weapons in Space shows how tension over the role of military space technologies in American statecraft was a central source of SDI's controversy, even more so than questions of technical feasibility. Consequently, Weapons in Space carries the legacy of SDI into the post–Cold War era and shows how this controversial program continues to shape the global discourse about instability in space—and the growing anxieties about 21st-century space arms race (336 pages).

Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict Over Taiwan by Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham (2024). This study examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict? What happens if nuclear weapons are used? This project employed a modified US-China wargame to include nuclear wapons. The greatest pressure for nuclear use came when China teams reached a crisis: their invasion of Taiwan was in danger of a defeat that might threaten Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. To dissuade China from gambling for resurrection – using nuclear weapons to salvage a failing conventional campaign – U.S. diplomacy was much more important than nuclear brinksmanship (115 pages).

Influence Without Arms: The New Logic of Nuclear Deterrence by Matthew Fuhrmann (2024). How does nuclear technology influence international relations? While many books focus on countries armed with nuclear weapons, this volume puts the spotlight on those that have the technology to build nuclear bombs but choose not to. These weapons-capable countries, such as Brazil, Germany, and Japan, have what is known as nuclear latency, and they shape world politics in important ways. Offering a definitive account of nuclear latency, this book navigates a critical yet poorly understood issue. It identifies global trends, explains why countries obtain nuclear latency, and analyzes its consequences for international security (356 pages).

The Language of Deception: Weaponizing Next Generation AI by Matthew Hutchens (2024). This book explores multiple foundational concepts, the psychology of deception, considerations of machine sentience and consciousness, and the history of how technology has been weaponized in the past. With this grounding, Hutchens examines topics related to the emerging risks of advanced AI technologies including, employing Large Language Models (LLMs) for social manipulation, disinformation, psychological operations, deception and fraud. Hutchens delivers decisive look at how contemporary and future AI can and will be weaponized for malicious and adversarial purposes (400 pages).

Articles

“The 2023 Strategic Posture Commission Report From a Japanese Perspective” by Masashi Murano (2025). The article examines the 2023 Strategic Posture Commission report from a Japanese perspective, focusing on U.S. extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. It highlights the need for the U.S. to enhance its strategic posture to address the challenges posed by China and Russia, emphasizing the importance of theater-focused nuclear capabilities, such as forward-deployed SSBNs and aerial patrols by bombers. The article discusses the limitations of Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA) in the region and suggests alternatives like the development of a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile (SLCM-N) or an intermediate-range nuclear prompt strike (IR-NPS) system. It also underscores the significance of integrating U.S. and allied conventional capabilities, improving homeland defense, and enhancing consultation mechanisms between the U.S. and Japan to ensure credible deterrence (10 pages).

“Dual-Use is a Strategy, Not a Category (Nor a Trap)” by Gene Keselman and Fiona Murray (2025). This article discusses the concept of dual-use technology, which refers to technologies that can serve both military and civilian purposes. The authors argue that dual-use should be viewed as a strategic approach rather than a rigid category, emphasizing the importance of flexibility in market strategy for startups. They highlight the challenges and opportunities of navigating both commercial and defense markets, noting the need for a shared language and understanding across these sectors. The article also introduces the Dual-Use Readiness Levels™ framework developed at MIT to help startups effectively transition between commercial and defense markets. Through examples like Tomorrow.io and iRobot, the authors illustrate how companies can successfully implement dual-use strategies, ultimately advocating for a strategic rather than categorical approach to dual-use technology to foster innovation and address significant challenges (2 pages).

“Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation” by Even Hellan Larsen (2024). This paper explores the strategic dilemma faced by nuclear-armed states, termed "substrategic paralysis," where they are deterred from engaging in lower levels of conflict due to an adversary's asymmetric escalation threat. Larsen develops a typology of four strategies that nuclear weapon states can employ to escape this paralysis: countervalue punishment, conventional pause, damage limitation, and tit-for-tat strategies. The article examines historical and contemporary cases, including the Soviet Union's response to NATO's flexible response strategy, India's approach to Pakistan's asymmetric escalation, and the United States' strategy against Russia and China. It highlights the evolving nature of nuclear deterrence strategies and the importance of understanding these dynamics to mitigate nuclear escalation risks (37 pages).

“Why South Korea Should Go Nuclear: The Bomb Is the Best Way to Contain the Threat From the North” by Robert E. Kelley and Min-Hyung Kim (2024). The article discusses South Korea's increasing consideration of developing its own nuclear weapons in response to the growing nuclear threat from North Korea and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. commitment to its defense. Historically reliant on the U.S. nuclear umbrella since the 1953 defense alliance, South Korea now faces a dual challenge: North Korea's advancing missile capabilities and the potential return of Donald Trump, whose past criticisms of the alliance raise doubts about U.S. intervention in a conflict. Public support for nuclearization in South Korea has surged, with 71% favoring the idea, while political elites show more openness than ever. However, U.S. opposition to nuclear proliferation remains a significant barrier. The article argues that a nuclear-armed South Korea could enhance its self-sufficiency and security, ultimately benefiting both South Korea and the U.S. by allowing Washington to focus on broader regional challenges (18 pages).

“A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine: Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security” by Matthew Evangelista (2024). This article explores the challenges of Ukraine’s future security policy, particularly the role of NATO membership and nuclear deterrence. While some argue for NATO’s protection under the U.S. nuclear umbrellas, others express concerns about the reliability and risks of extended nuclear deterrence, particularly in light of potential escalation scenarios. The article highlights the 1961 Berlin Crisis as an example of Soviet military strategy could escalate tensions even against U.S. nuclear threats. Finally, this article aims to address the security dilemma and efforts to deter Russian nuclear aggression while minimizing the risks of escalation (43 pages).

What we’re re-reading given its importance today 

Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision by Roberta Wohlstetter (1962). "Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision" by Roberta Wohlstetter examines the events leading up to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, focusing on the failures of intelligence and decision-making that contributed to the surprise assault. Wohlstetter analyzes the various warnings and signals that were available to U.S. military and political leaders prior to the attack, arguing that these warnings were often misunderstood or disregarded due to cognitive biases and organizational shortcomings. She emphasizes the importance of effective communication and the need for a more systematic approach to intelligence analysis. Through her detailed investigation, Wohlstetter highlights the complexities of interpreting intelligence and the critical role it plays in national security, ultimately advocating for reforms to improve future decision-making processes (446 pages).

Arms and Influence by Thomas Schelling (1966)  "Arms and Influence" by Thomas Schelling explores the complex interplay between military power and diplomatic strategy during the Cold War era. Schelling argues that the possession of nuclear weapons and other forms of military capability not only serves as a deterrent but also shapes international negotiations and conflicts. He emphasizes the importance of credible threats and the psychological aspects of warfare, suggesting that the ability to influence adversaries often relies more on the perception of power than on its actual use. Through a series of case studies and theoretical insights, Schelling illustrates how states can leverage their military capabilities to achieve political objectives, highlighting the intricate balance between coercion and diplomacy in global affairs (336 pages).

Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War "Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War" by Paul Huth (1991) explores the concept of extended deterrence, which refers to a state's commitment to defend its allies against aggression, thereby preventing conflict. Huth analyzes the conditions under which extended deterrence is effective, emphasizing the importance of credibility, communication, and the perceived resolve of the deterring state. He argues that successful extended deterrence can reduce the likelihood of war by reassuring allies and dissuading potential aggressors. The book also examines historical case studies to illustrate how extended deterrence has shaped international relations and conflict dynamics (238 pages).

The listing herein of any non-LLNL publication does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the U.S. government or the Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC.

What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately

Chip Wars by Christopher Miller (2022). Microchips have become the critical resource underpinning modern military, economic, and geopolitical power, with America's historical dominance in chip design and manufacturing now being challenged by competitors, especially China. Chris Miller's "Chip War" highlights how the U.S.'s slipping control over chip production has led to a global chip shortage and a new Cold War, emphasizing the need to understand the pivotal role of semiconductors in today's world (464 pages).

Kill Chain by Christian Brose (2020). Christian Brose's book highlights the urgent need for the US military to adapt to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous systems to counter growing threats from rivals such as China and Russia. It emphasizes the importance of building a battle network that enables rapid threat assessment and decision-making to maintain America's military dominance and prevent future conflicts (320 pages).

Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century by Thérèse Delpech (2012). Deterrence remains a key strategy for managing nuclear threats in the 21st century. Thérèse Delpech advocates for updating Cold War-era concepts to address the complexities of modern nuclear actors, including new superpowers, smaller nuclear states, nonstate actors, and emerging domains like outer space and cyberspace (196 pages).

“Political Drivers of China's Changing Nuclear Policy” by Tong Zhao (2024). The report underscores that despite the 2021 virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, little progress has been made in nuclear dialogues, with China emphasizing the need to stabilize political relations first. It argues that China's nuclear expansion is driven by political considerations under Xi Jinping, and recommends addressing information gaps, exploring behavioral agreements, improving internal accountability, promoting strategic security dialogue, addressing the conventional-nuclear linkage, and empowering experts to mitigate nuclear risks (103 pages).

Articles

“Justifying Attacks on Nuclear Facilities” by Ludovica Castelli & Olamide Samuel (2024). The recent Russian military attacks on nuclear facilities in Ukraine highlight the normalization of such actions despite the prohibitions in the Geneva Conventions. This article examines the historical context and rationale behind these attacks, revealing that lax legal regulation is a deliberate feature of the global nuclear-nonproliferation regime, allowing these practices to persist as a coercive tool (23 pages).

“Playing with Proliferation: How South Korea and Saudi Arabia Leverage the Prospect of Going Nuclear” by Tristan Volpe (2024). Countries leverage nuclear latency by making credible threats to develop nuclear weapons to gain concessions, while also providing assurances of nuclear restraint if their demands are met. This approach involves convincing the United States of their genuine intentions, as seen with South Korea's advanced nuclear capabilities and Saudi Arabia's geopolitical strategies, despite both lacking significant fissile material production capabilities (17 pages).

“The U.S. Department of Deterrence” by Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay (2024). Gartzke and Linday explore the concept of "integrated deterrence," a strategic approach that combines various military and non-military tools to prevent conflict by convincing adversaries that the costs of aggression outweigh the benefits. It argues that while integrated deterrence is an ambitious goal, achieving it is complicated by the inherent challenges of synchronizing diverse military capabilities and political objectives. Integrated deterrence is crucial for adapting U.S. national security strategy to emerging global threats, particularly from major powers like China. Understanding its complexities helps policymakers balance military readiness with effective deterrence, ensuring that defense strategies align with political and strategic goal (13 pages).

“Access Denied? Non-Aligned State Decisions to Grant Access During War” by Emily Ellinger (2024). Ellinger explores the complex decision-making processes of neutral states during large-scale conflicts, focusing on Greece in World War I and Sweden in World War II. It highlights how these nations navigated the pressures of political survival, economic repercussions, and retaliation risks when deciding whether to grant military access to belligerent powers. Understanding these historical cases provides valuable insights into how neutral states balance conflicting pressures during wartime, offering lessons for modern strategic decisions and negotiations. By analyzing these past instances, the study helps inform current and future policies regarding military access and neutrality in international conflicts (15 pages).

“Imagining the Endgame of the U.S.-China Rivalry” Michael J. Mazarr (2024). This article argues that while the U.S.-China rivalry is intense and ongoing, history shows that such strategic competitions eventually end. It suggests that American policy would benefit from developing a clear vision of how this rivalry might conclude, balancing vigorous competition with a long-term strategy for eventual resolution. By envisioning potential endgames for the U.S.-China rivalry, the article encourages a more strategic approach that could avoid endless conflict and guide policy toward a stable and constructive future relationship. This perspective aims to reduce the risk of perpetual confrontation and help shape a more manageable and predictable course for U.S.-China interactions (15 pages).

What we’re re-reading given its importance today

The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy by Lawrence Freedman (1983). The book traces the evolution of nuclear strategy from the inception of the atomic bomb through various phases of Cold War dynamics, technological advancements, and geopolitical shifts, culminating in contemporary issues of nuclear proliferation and the return of great power politics. It explores themes such as deterrence, arms control, and the strategic doctrines of major nuclear powers, while questioning the feasibility of a coherent nuclear strategy in the modern era (472 pages).

“The Security Dilemma in Alliances Politics” by Glenn H. Snyder (1984). The "security dilemma" concept is explored in the context of alliances in both multipolar and bipolar systems, highlighting the challenge of balancing support for allies with fears of entrapment or abandonment. This dilemma is further complicated by the need to choose between firmness and conciliation towards adversaries, with historical and contemporary examples illustrating its effects. Understanding the security dilemma in alliances is crucial because it influences how countries navigate their relationships with both allies and adversaries. In multipolar systems, the dilemma is more pronounced, leading to greater constraints on allies' policies, while in bipolar systems like NATO, its relative weakness helps explain ongoing conflicts and strategic tensions (35 pages).

The listing herein of any non-LLNL publication does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the U.S. government or the Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC.