Issue 4 — 2025
What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately
Orders of Exclusion: Great Powers and the Strategic Sources of Foundational Rules in International Relations by Kyle Lascurettes (2025). The motivations behind why and when powerful countries seek to change the international order—the set of rules guiding global politics—are increasingly relevant in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. Recent actions by the Trump administration, which showed disregard for the established liberal international order, and the growing influence of China, which may seek to reshape the order to its advantage, have intensified debates about the forces driving great powers to alter global rules. While previous research often emphasized consensus and inclusivity in the formation of international orders, Lascurettes presents a contrasting view. He argues that dominant powers are primarily motivated by exclusion when they seek to enact major changes. These powers act when they perceive significant new threats—whether from rival states or ideological movements—and aim to exclude these threats from gaining further influence. According to Lascurettes, the creation and rewriting of foundational international rules is less about cooperation and more about strategic efforts to contain or block perceived adversaries. This exclusionary approach, he asserts, has been a consistent feature of international order building for over three centuries, representing a continuation of traditional power politics through the crafting of global rules. (339 pages).
America’s Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition by Ali Wyne (2025). The prevailing view in U.S. foreign policy circles is that America must adapt to a new era of “great-power competition,” particularly in response to rising challenges from China and Russia. After the Cold War, the United States enjoyed a period of dominance but became distracted by conflicts in the Middle East. Now, with its influence being tested by two authoritarian rivals, the question arises: how should the U.S. respond? In his analysis, Ali Wyne critically examines the concept of great-power competition as a guiding strategy for U.S. foreign policy. He cautions that framing policy in these terms could make the United States overly defensive and reactive, allowing rivals to dictate its actions. Wyne urges Washington to avoid extremes—neither complacency nor alarmism—and instead adopt a balanced approach that selectively contests Chinese and Russian moves without letting them set America’s agenda. By analyzing the dynamics of a rising China, a disruptive Russia, and the growing partnership between them, Wyne argues that the U.S. faces not just a challenge, but an opportunity. He advocates for a confident, proactive strategy that manages these global shifts while focusing on renewal both domestically and internationally. (224 pages).
The Art of Coercion: Credible Threats and the Assurance Dilemma by Reid B.C. Pauly (2025). Pauly offers a new perspective on why coercive strategies in international politics often fail, even when employed by powerful states. Contrary to expectations, strong states succeed in coercion only about one-third of the time. Pauly argues that this is largely because targets of coercion fear they will be punished regardless of whether they comply with demands—a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. This dynamic discourages compliance, as targets see little incentive to obey if punishment seems inevitable either way. Pauly explores this logic through case studies of nuclear counterproliferation efforts involving South Africa, Iraq, Libya, and Iran. He identifies an “assurance dilemma” for coercers: as threats become more credible, promises not to punish upon compliance become less believable. Without credible assurances, targets may resist, expecting negative consequences no matter their actions. For coercion to be effective, states must convince targets not only that noncompliance will bring punishment, but also that compliance will bring safety. Pauly’s analysis challenges the assumption that simply making tougher threats leads to success, offering valuable insights for policymakers using coercive strategies in foreign affairs. (252 pages).
Articles
Politically Unthinkable? The Missing Dimension Of Nuclear Use Scenarios by Jeffrey Michaels (2025). This article critically examines the foundations of nuclear deterrence strategies, which are based on hypothetical scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons. Despite the centrality of these scenarios, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since 1945. Michaels questions why nuclear use appears plausible in strategic scenarios but not in real-world practice. The article suggests that traditional scenarios often overlook the significant political challenges and decision-making barriers involved in actually crossing the nuclear threshold. By analyzing Cold War-era American debates about the possibility of a Soviet ‘first strike,’ the article highlights the limitations of focusing solely on technical aspects—such as weapon capabilities and delivery systems—when evaluating nuclear use scenarios. Instead, Michaels argues for a new approach to scenario design and critique, one that incorporates the political dynamics and constraints observed during actual crises and confrontations between nuclear states. Including these political factors would likely alter the perceived utility and credibility of deterrence strategies, making them more realistic and relevant. Ultimately, Michaels calls for a more nuanced understanding of nuclear deterrence, one that recognizes the complex interplay of technical and political considerations in shaping state behavior and strategic planning. (18 pages).
Allies as Armaments: Explaining the Specialization of State Military Capabilities by J. Andres Gannon (2025). This article explores why states often under-produce certain military capabilities while over-producing others, potentially leaving themselves exposed to risks. It argues that alliances play a key role in this dynamic by allowing states to safely specialize in specific military areas, knowing that their allies can compensate for any deficiencies. By analyzing detailed data on military capabilities, the study introduces a new way to measure military specialization and finds that states with strong alliance partners are more likely to focus their military resources rather than maintaining a broad, self-sufficient force. This challenges traditional views that see internal military buildup and reliance on allies as opposing strategies, showing instead that alliances can enable both specialization and diversification. The findings have significant implications for debates about how countries share defense responsibilities and point to new directions for research on military planning and alliance effects. (30 pages).
From Assurance to Resilience: Adapting NATO’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy by Tomáš Nagy (March 2025) Nagy examines how NATO’s nuclear strategy must evolve in response to recent security challenges, especially those posed by Russia’s aggression and nuclear signaling. Nagy argues that the return of high-intensity conflict in Europe, coupled with doubts about the reliability of transatlantic commitments, has made NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture more important than ever. The paper emphasizes that NATO must move beyond simply assuring allies of its protection and instead build resilience into its nuclear deterrence policy. Nagy proposes that resilience should be developed across three key areas: capabilities, resolve, and communication. This means not only maintaining credible nuclear forces, but also strengthening the political will to use them if necessary, and improving how NATO communicates its deterrence intentions to both allies and adversaries. By focusing on resilience, NATO can adapt to a more unpredictable security environment, deter adversaries more effectively, and reinforce internal unity and public confidence within the Alliance. Ultimately, Nagy’s analysis underscores the need for a comprehensive and adaptive nuclear policy that addresses both external threats and internal cohesion, ensuring NATO’s continued credibility and effectiveness in the face of evolving nuclear risks. (24 pages).
How to Survive the New Nuclear Age by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi (2025). Narang and Vaddi analyze the growing complexities and dangers of today’s nuclear landscape. They argue that the traditional nuclear order—characterized by clear rules, arms control agreements, and relatively stable deterrence—is eroding. More states are acquiring nuclear capabilities, and existing nuclear powers are modernizing their arsenals, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation. Narang and Vaddi highlight the weakening of arms control frameworks, such as the collapse of key treaties, and the emergence of new technologies that blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare. They contend that the United States and its allies must adapt to this more volatile environment by strengthening deterrence, investing in missile defenses, and revitalizing diplomatic efforts to manage proliferation. The authors emphasize the need for innovative arms control initiatives and improved crisis communication channels to reduce the risks of accidental or inadvertent nuclear conflict. Ultimately, Narang and Vaddi warn that complacency is dangerous in the face of proliferating nuclear risks, and they call for a comprehensive, flexible strategy to ensure national and global security in an increasingly unpredictable nuclear age. (25 pages)
Beware the Europe You Wish For: The Downsides and Dangers of Allied Independence by Celeste A. Wallander (2025). Wallander examines the potential risks associated with a more independent European defense posture, separate from the United States and NATO. Wallander argues that while calls for European strategic autonomy are often motivated by a desire for burden-sharing and reduced American involvement, such independence could undermine the stability and effectiveness of the transatlantic alliance. She warns that a Europe acting independently might lack the military capabilities, coordination, and political unity necessary to deter common threats, potentially emboldening adversaries like Russia. Wallander also highlights the risk of divergence in threat perceptions and security priorities between the U.S. and Europe, which could weaken collective defense and reduce the credibility of deterrence. Furthermore, she notes that the process of building independent European defense structures could create bureaucratic duplication, waste resources, and strain diplomatic relations. Rather than pursuing separation, Wallander advocates for strengthening NATO and maintaining close U.S.-European cooperation. She concludes that allied unity and integrated defense planning are essential for addressing shared security challenges, and cautions against the unintended consequences of pursuing European independence in security affairs. The article ultimately underscores the importance of transatlantic solidarity for global stability. (20 pages).
What we’re re-reading given its importance today
Israel and the Bomb by Avner Cohen (1999). Israel and the Bomb provides the first comprehensive political history of Israel’s nuclear program, moving beyond speculation to draw on thousands of newly declassified American and Israeli documents and over one hundred interviews with key figures. Cohen reveals that Israel became a nuclear-armed state just before the 1967 Six-Day War, yet has maintained a deliberate policy of “opacity”—refusing to confirm or deny its nuclear capability. The book focuses on the pivotal period from 1950 to 1970, tracing how David Ben-Gurion’s vision for a nuclear Israel was realized. Cohen details the establishment of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission in 1952, the crucial partnership with France for advanced technology, and the failure of U.S. intelligence to recognize the Dimona Project’s true purpose. He also examines the secret negotiations between President Nixon and Prime Minister Meir that cemented Israel’s ambiguous nuclear stance. Cohen analyzes the strategic, political, and diplomatic reasons behind Israel’s secrecy, including fears of Arab reaction, domestic debate, and U.S. nonproliferation pressures. Israel and the Bomb illuminates the complexities of Israel’s nuclear history and policy, offering vital insights for those interested in nuclear proliferation, Middle Eastern politics, Israeli history, and U.S.-Israeli relations. (328 pages).
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate by Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N Waltz (2012). Sagan and Waltz present an influential discussion on the consequences of nuclear proliferation. The book is structured as a debate between two leading scholars with contrasting views. Waltz, representing the “proliferation optimist” perspective, argues that the spread of nuclear weapons can actually promote stability and peace. According to Waltz, nuclear-armed states are deterred from going to war due to the catastrophic consequences of nuclear conflict, making the world safer as more states acquire these weapons.In contrast, Sagan, the “proliferation pessimist,” contends that the spread of nuclear weapons increases the risk of accidents, unauthorized use, and escalation during crises. Sagan emphasizes problems such as organizational failures, misperceptions, and the possibility of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of unstable regimes or non-state actors. The book explores historical case studies, theoretical arguments, and policy implications, offering readers a nuanced understanding of the nuclear proliferation debate. (288 pages).
What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately
The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon by Ankit Panda (2025). In this new book, Ankit Panda explores the enduring and emerging factors that are contributing to this new nuclear age. From strained great power ties to complex multipolar dynamics and the precipitous decline of arms control, he shows how our coexistence with the bomb is becoming more complicated and perilous. The prospect of nuclear escalation is again shaping how political decision-makers and military establishments around the world think and act. But unlike the peril of the Cold War, a greater number of nuclear players and a plethora of new technologies, including AI and exotic new weapons, make the search for stability far from straightforward. Managing the risks of a nuclear confrontation, he argues, will require new urgency and thinking to pull us back from the precipice of global catastrophe (288 pages).
Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information-Age Weapons in International Security by Fiona Cunningham (2025). How can states use military force to achieve their political aims without triggering a catastrophic nuclear war? Among the states facing this dilemma of fighting limited wars, only China has given information-age weapons such a prominent role. While other countries have preferred the traditional options of threatening to use nuclear weapons or fielding capabilities for decisive conventional military victories, China has instead chosen to rely on offensive cyber operations, counterspace capabilities, and precision conventional missiles to coerce its adversaries. In Under the Nuclear Shadow, Fiona Cunningham examines this distinctive aspect of China’s post–Cold War deterrence strategy, developing an original theory of “strategic substitution.” When crises with the United States highlighted the inadequacy of China’s existing military capabilities, Cunningham argues, China pursued information-age weapons that promised to rapidly provide credible leverage against adversaries. Drawing on hundreds of original Chinese-language sources and interviews with security experts in China, Cunningham provides a rare and candid glimpse from Beijing into the information-age technologies that are reshaping how states gain leverage in the twenty-first century (400 pages).
Age of Deception: Cybersecurity as a Secret Weapon by Jon R. Lindsay (2025). At the heart of cybersecurity is a paradox: cooperation enables conflict. In Age of Deception, Jon R. Lindsay shows how widespread trust in cyberspace enables espionage and subversion. The dark arts have long been part of global politics, but digital systems expand their scope and scale. Yet success in secret statecraft depends on political context, not just sophisticated technology. Lindsay provides a general theory of intelligence performance—the analogue to military performance in battle—to explain why spies and hackers alike depend on clandestine organizations and vulnerable institutions (288 pages).
Articles
Arms Control is Not Dead Yet: America Should Pursue Parallel Nuclear Negotiations with China and Russia by Rose Gottemoeller (2025). This article emphasizes the urgent need for the United States to engage in nuclear arms control negotiations with Russia and China to prevent a dangerous arms race and maintain global stability. With the New START Treaty set to expire in February 2026 and Russia halting its implementation due to geopolitical tensions, the article advocates for extending its limits and negotiating new agreements to include all nuclear warheads and advanced delivery systems. Simultaneously, the U.S. should initiate talks with China, whose rapidly modernizing nuclear arsenal poses growing concerns, focusing on transparency, mutual restraint, and banning destabilizing systems like fractional orbital bombardment. Gottemoeller argues that parallel negotiations with both nations, coupled with reinforcing U.S. commitments to allies, could avert a costly arms race and reduce the risk of nuclear escalation (14 pages).
Trump May Be Triggering the Fastest Nuclear Weapons Race Since the Cold War by Michael Hirsch (2025). The article highlights Donald Trump's longstanding concern with preventing nuclear conflict, a focus that dates back to the 1980s when he ambitiously proposed ending the Cold War as a self-appointed ambassador. Throughout his political career, Trump has consistently emphasized the dangers of nuclear weapons, calling them "the biggest problem in the world" and advocating for their global elimination. During his presidency, he reiterated these concerns, notably before the 2018 Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin, and has continued to warn about the risks of nuclear escalation, including the prospect of World War III, while questioning the need for new nuclear weapons given existing arsenals (16 pages).
The Age of American Unilateralism: How a Rogue Superpower Will Remake the Global Order by Michael Beckley (2025). This article explores the United States' shift away from liberal internationalism toward a more unilateral, self-serving foreign policy. This transformation, driven by structural forces such as demographic changes, automation, and frustrations with global leadership, has positioned the U.S. as a "rogue superpower" capable of leveraging its economic, military, and technological dominance to revise or abandon global rules. Beckley argues that while the liberal order succeeded in overcoming past threats, its triumphs have created burdens, empowered adversaries like China and Russia, and fractured authority in global institutions. As autocracies militarize and allies struggle to keep pace, the U.S. faces growing incentives to disengage, bolstered by new technologies that enable remote strikes and economic self-sufficiency. Beckley warns that reckless unilateralism risks destabilizing the global order, but suggests a strategic alternative: consolidating a free-world bloc to contain adversaries, deepen economic alliances, and channel rivalry into rebuilding domestic infrastructure and industry. Ultimately, the article advocates for a focused strategy that balances U.S. interests with global stability (15 pages).
New Nuclear Responsibility by John Pendleton, Ariel (Eli) Levite, and Toby Dalton. The article explores the emerging nuclear energy renaissance driven by technological innovation, increasing energy demands from AI-powered data centers, and bipartisan political support in the United States. New nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced modular reactors (AMRs), promise safer, cheaper, and more versatile applications compared to traditional large-scale plants. Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are investing in nuclear power as both customers and developers, while governments and private capital cautiously support the sector. Despite optimism, the industry faces persistent challenges such as supply chain gaps, workforce shortages, regulatory hurdles, waste management, and security risks. The article emphasizes the need for responsible stewardship by stakeholders to address these issues and ensure nuclear power’s long-term viability as a clean and reliable energy source amidst global competition and evolving energy demands (8 pages).
Game On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms Control by Heather Williams et.al. The war in Ukraine has created an inflection point for Euro-Atlantic security. With the New START Treaty expiring in 2026 and no clear successor in sight, arms control as we know it is at risk of ending. This report by CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) set out to explore prospects for arms control with Russia following the end of the conflict in Ukraine. The study used an alternative futures methodology to identify consistent trends along with potential moments of opportunity for strengthening strategic stability and arms control. In nearly all future scenarios, the findings reveal that competition with Russia will likely continue after the Ukraine conflict and Europe will emerge as a key player in regional strategic stability. The United States and its NATO allies must consistently signal openness to arms control while enhancing deterrence to manage competition in an increasingly uncertain security environment (43 pages).
Why Young South Koreans Are Cooling on the Bomb by James D. Kim. This article explores the generational divide in South Korea's nuclear armament debate. Older generations, shaped by memories of the Korean War and Cold War-era vulnerabilities, strongly support nuclear weapons as a means of self-reliance and protection against North Korea, driven by worst-case thinking and distrust in external guarantees. In contrast, younger generations, raised in a globally integrated and prosperous South Korea, view nuclear weapons as unnecessary and counterproductive, prioritizing global standards, international reputation, and domestic challenges over military threats. While the debate is currently dominated by older voices in politics and media, the growing influence of the "MZ Generation" may shift public opinion and policy in the future, though their stance could change if global nonproliferation norms weaken or nuclearization gains prestige internationally. Ultimately, the article highlights the importance of amplifying younger perspectives in shaping South Korea’s long-term security decisions (7 pages).
What we’re re-reading given its importance today
The Strategy of Conflict by Thomas Schelling (1981). This book is a foundational work in game theory and strategic thinking, emphasizing the role of communication, bargaining, and commitment in conflict resolution and negotiation. Schelling explores how individuals and groups can achieve cooperative outcomes even in competitive scenarios by leveraging strategic behavior, credible commitments, and shared expectations. He introduces concepts such as focal points, the importance of signaling, and the use of threats and promises to influence opponents' decisions. The book also examines the dynamics of deterrence, particularly in the context of Cold War nuclear strategy, highlighting the paradoxical role of uncertainty and the strategic value of limiting one's own options to enhance credibility. Overall, Schelling's insights bridge economics, psychology, and political science, offering practical tools for understanding and managing conflicts in various domains (328 pages).
Every War Must End by Fred Charles Iklé (2005). This book explores the difficult and often painful process through which wars in the modern age have been brought to a close and what this process means for the future. Iklé considers a variety of examples from twentieth-century history and examines specific strategies that effectively "won the peace," including the Allied policy in Germany and Japan after World War II (208 pages).
What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately
Weapons in Space: Technology, Politics, and the Rise and Fall of the Strategic Defense Initiative by Aaron Bateman (2024). In this book, Aaron Bateman draws from recently declassified American, European, and Soviet documents to give an insightful account of SDI, situating it within a new phase in the militarization of space after the superpower détente fell apart in the 1970s. In doing so, Bateman reveals the largely secret role of military space technologies in late–Cold War US defense strategy and foreign relations. In contrast to existing narratives, Weapons in Space shows how tension over the role of military space technologies in American statecraft was a central source of SDI's controversy, even more so than questions of technical feasibility. Consequently, Weapons in Space carries the legacy of SDI into the post–Cold War era and shows how this controversial program continues to shape the global discourse about instability in space—and the growing anxieties about 21st-century space arms race (336 pages).
Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict Over Taiwan by Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham (2024). This study examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict? What happens if nuclear weapons are used? This project employed a modified US-China wargame to include nuclear wapons. The greatest pressure for nuclear use came when China teams reached a crisis: their invasion of Taiwan was in danger of a defeat that might threaten Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. To dissuade China from gambling for resurrection – using nuclear weapons to salvage a failing conventional campaign – U.S. diplomacy was much more important than nuclear brinksmanship (115 pages).
Influence Without Arms: The New Logic of Nuclear Deterrence by Matthew Fuhrmann (2024). How does nuclear technology influence international relations? While many books focus on countries armed with nuclear weapons, this volume puts the spotlight on those that have the technology to build nuclear bombs but choose not to. These weapons-capable countries, such as Brazil, Germany, and Japan, have what is known as nuclear latency, and they shape world politics in important ways. Offering a definitive account of nuclear latency, this book navigates a critical yet poorly understood issue. It identifies global trends, explains why countries obtain nuclear latency, and analyzes its consequences for international security (356 pages).
The Language of Deception: Weaponizing Next Generation AI by Matthew Hutchens (2024). This book explores multiple foundational concepts, the psychology of deception, considerations of machine sentience and consciousness, and the history of how technology has been weaponized in the past. With this grounding, Hutchens examines topics related to the emerging risks of advanced AI technologies including, employing Large Language Models (LLMs) for social manipulation, disinformation, psychological operations, deception and fraud. Hutchens delivers decisive look at how contemporary and future AI can and will be weaponized for malicious and adversarial purposes (400 pages).
Articles
“The 2023 Strategic Posture Commission Report From a Japanese Perspective” by Masashi Murano (2025). The article examines the 2023 Strategic Posture Commission report from a Japanese perspective, focusing on U.S. extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. It highlights the need for the U.S. to enhance its strategic posture to address the challenges posed by China and Russia, emphasizing the importance of theater-focused nuclear capabilities, such as forward-deployed SSBNs and aerial patrols by bombers. The article discusses the limitations of Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA) in the region and suggests alternatives like the development of a sea-launched nuclear cruise missile (SLCM-N) or an intermediate-range nuclear prompt strike (IR-NPS) system. It also underscores the significance of integrating U.S. and allied conventional capabilities, improving homeland defense, and enhancing consultation mechanisms between the U.S. and Japan to ensure credible deterrence (10 pages).
“Dual-Use is a Strategy, Not a Category (Nor a Trap)” by Gene Keselman and Fiona Murray (2025). This article discusses the concept of dual-use technology, which refers to technologies that can serve both military and civilian purposes. The authors argue that dual-use should be viewed as a strategic approach rather than a rigid category, emphasizing the importance of flexibility in market strategy for startups. They highlight the challenges and opportunities of navigating both commercial and defense markets, noting the need for a shared language and understanding across these sectors. The article also introduces the Dual-Use Readiness Levels™ framework developed at MIT to help startups effectively transition between commercial and defense markets. Through examples like Tomorrow.io and iRobot, the authors illustrate how companies can successfully implement dual-use strategies, ultimately advocating for a strategic rather than categorical approach to dual-use technology to foster innovation and address significant challenges (2 pages).
“Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation” by Even Hellan Larsen (2024). This paper explores the strategic dilemma faced by nuclear-armed states, termed "substrategic paralysis," where they are deterred from engaging in lower levels of conflict due to an adversary's asymmetric escalation threat. Larsen develops a typology of four strategies that nuclear weapon states can employ to escape this paralysis: countervalue punishment, conventional pause, damage limitation, and tit-for-tat strategies. The article examines historical and contemporary cases, including the Soviet Union's response to NATO's flexible response strategy, India's approach to Pakistan's asymmetric escalation, and the United States' strategy against Russia and China. It highlights the evolving nature of nuclear deterrence strategies and the importance of understanding these dynamics to mitigate nuclear escalation risks (37 pages).
“Why South Korea Should Go Nuclear: The Bomb Is the Best Way to Contain the Threat From the North” by Robert E. Kelley and Min-Hyung Kim (2024). The article discusses South Korea's increasing consideration of developing its own nuclear weapons in response to the growing nuclear threat from North Korea and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. commitment to its defense. Historically reliant on the U.S. nuclear umbrella since the 1953 defense alliance, South Korea now faces a dual challenge: North Korea's advancing missile capabilities and the potential return of Donald Trump, whose past criticisms of the alliance raise doubts about U.S. intervention in a conflict. Public support for nuclearization in South Korea has surged, with 71% favoring the idea, while political elites show more openness than ever. However, U.S. opposition to nuclear proliferation remains a significant barrier. The article argues that a nuclear-armed South Korea could enhance its self-sufficiency and security, ultimately benefiting both South Korea and the U.S. by allowing Washington to focus on broader regional challenges (18 pages).
“A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine: Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security” by Matthew Evangelista (2024). This article explores the challenges of Ukraine’s future security policy, particularly the role of NATO membership and nuclear deterrence. While some argue for NATO’s protection under the U.S. nuclear umbrellas, others express concerns about the reliability and risks of extended nuclear deterrence, particularly in light of potential escalation scenarios. The article highlights the 1961 Berlin Crisis as an example of Soviet military strategy could escalate tensions even against U.S. nuclear threats. Finally, this article aims to address the security dilemma and efforts to deter Russian nuclear aggression while minimizing the risks of escalation (43 pages).
What we’re re-reading given its importance today
Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision by Roberta Wohlstetter (1962). "Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision" by Roberta Wohlstetter examines the events leading up to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, focusing on the failures of intelligence and decision-making that contributed to the surprise assault. Wohlstetter analyzes the various warnings and signals that were available to U.S. military and political leaders prior to the attack, arguing that these warnings were often misunderstood or disregarded due to cognitive biases and organizational shortcomings. She emphasizes the importance of effective communication and the need for a more systematic approach to intelligence analysis. Through her detailed investigation, Wohlstetter highlights the complexities of interpreting intelligence and the critical role it plays in national security, ultimately advocating for reforms to improve future decision-making processes (446 pages).
Arms and Influence by Thomas Schelling (1966) "Arms and Influence" by Thomas Schelling explores the complex interplay between military power and diplomatic strategy during the Cold War era. Schelling argues that the possession of nuclear weapons and other forms of military capability not only serves as a deterrent but also shapes international negotiations and conflicts. He emphasizes the importance of credible threats and the psychological aspects of warfare, suggesting that the ability to influence adversaries often relies more on the perception of power than on its actual use. Through a series of case studies and theoretical insights, Schelling illustrates how states can leverage their military capabilities to achieve political objectives, highlighting the intricate balance between coercion and diplomacy in global affairs (336 pages).
Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War "Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War" by Paul Huth (1991) explores the concept of extended deterrence, which refers to a state's commitment to defend its allies against aggression, thereby preventing conflict. Huth analyzes the conditions under which extended deterrence is effective, emphasizing the importance of credibility, communication, and the perceived resolve of the deterring state. He argues that successful extended deterrence can reduce the likelihood of war by reassuring allies and dissuading potential aggressors. The book also examines historical case studies to illustrate how extended deterrence has shaped international relations and conflict dynamics (238 pages).
What We’ve Been Reading (and Re-Reading) at CGSR Lately
Chip Wars by Christopher Miller (2022). Microchips have become the critical resource underpinning modern military, economic, and geopolitical power, with America's historical dominance in chip design and manufacturing now being challenged by competitors, especially China. Chris Miller's "Chip War" highlights how the U.S.'s slipping control over chip production has led to a global chip shortage and a new Cold War, emphasizing the need to understand the pivotal role of semiconductors in today's world (464 pages).
Kill Chain by Christian Brose (2020). Christian Brose's book highlights the urgent need for the US military to adapt to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous systems to counter growing threats from rivals such as China and Russia. It emphasizes the importance of building a battle network that enables rapid threat assessment and decision-making to maintain America's military dominance and prevent future conflicts (320 pages).
Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century by Thérèse Delpech (2012). Deterrence remains a key strategy for managing nuclear threats in the 21st century. Thérèse Delpech advocates for updating Cold War-era concepts to address the complexities of modern nuclear actors, including new superpowers, smaller nuclear states, nonstate actors, and emerging domains like outer space and cyberspace (196 pages).
“Political Drivers of China's Changing Nuclear Policy” by Tong Zhao (2024). The report underscores that despite the 2021 virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, little progress has been made in nuclear dialogues, with China emphasizing the need to stabilize political relations first. It argues that China's nuclear expansion is driven by political considerations under Xi Jinping, and recommends addressing information gaps, exploring behavioral agreements, improving internal accountability, promoting strategic security dialogue, addressing the conventional-nuclear linkage, and empowering experts to mitigate nuclear risks (103 pages).
Articles
“Justifying Attacks on Nuclear Facilities” by Ludovica Castelli & Olamide Samuel (2024). The recent Russian military attacks on nuclear facilities in Ukraine highlight the normalization of such actions despite the prohibitions in the Geneva Conventions. This article examines the historical context and rationale behind these attacks, revealing that lax legal regulation is a deliberate feature of the global nuclear-nonproliferation regime, allowing these practices to persist as a coercive tool (23 pages).
“Playing with Proliferation: How South Korea and Saudi Arabia Leverage the Prospect of Going Nuclear” by Tristan Volpe (2024). Countries leverage nuclear latency by making credible threats to develop nuclear weapons to gain concessions, while also providing assurances of nuclear restraint if their demands are met. This approach involves convincing the United States of their genuine intentions, as seen with South Korea's advanced nuclear capabilities and Saudi Arabia's geopolitical strategies, despite both lacking significant fissile material production capabilities (17 pages).
“The U.S. Department of Deterrence” by Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay (2024). Gartzke and Linday explore the concept of "integrated deterrence," a strategic approach that combines various military and non-military tools to prevent conflict by convincing adversaries that the costs of aggression outweigh the benefits. It argues that while integrated deterrence is an ambitious goal, achieving it is complicated by the inherent challenges of synchronizing diverse military capabilities and political objectives. Integrated deterrence is crucial for adapting U.S. national security strategy to emerging global threats, particularly from major powers like China. Understanding its complexities helps policymakers balance military readiness with effective deterrence, ensuring that defense strategies align with political and strategic goal (13 pages).
“Access Denied? Non-Aligned State Decisions to Grant Access During War” by Emily Ellinger (2024). Ellinger explores the complex decision-making processes of neutral states during large-scale conflicts, focusing on Greece in World War I and Sweden in World War II. It highlights how these nations navigated the pressures of political survival, economic repercussions, and retaliation risks when deciding whether to grant military access to belligerent powers. Understanding these historical cases provides valuable insights into how neutral states balance conflicting pressures during wartime, offering lessons for modern strategic decisions and negotiations. By analyzing these past instances, the study helps inform current and future policies regarding military access and neutrality in international conflicts (15 pages).
“Imagining the Endgame of the U.S.-China Rivalry” Michael J. Mazarr (2024). This article argues that while the U.S.-China rivalry is intense and ongoing, history shows that such strategic competitions eventually end. It suggests that American policy would benefit from developing a clear vision of how this rivalry might conclude, balancing vigorous competition with a long-term strategy for eventual resolution. By envisioning potential endgames for the U.S.-China rivalry, the article encourages a more strategic approach that could avoid endless conflict and guide policy toward a stable and constructive future relationship. This perspective aims to reduce the risk of perpetual confrontation and help shape a more manageable and predictable course for U.S.-China interactions (15 pages).
What we’re re-reading given its importance today
The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy by Lawrence Freedman (1983). The book traces the evolution of nuclear strategy from the inception of the atomic bomb through various phases of Cold War dynamics, technological advancements, and geopolitical shifts, culminating in contemporary issues of nuclear proliferation and the return of great power politics. It explores themes such as deterrence, arms control, and the strategic doctrines of major nuclear powers, while questioning the feasibility of a coherent nuclear strategy in the modern era (472 pages).
“The Security Dilemma in Alliances Politics” by Glenn H. Snyder (1984). The "security dilemma" concept is explored in the context of alliances in both multipolar and bipolar systems, highlighting the challenge of balancing support for allies with fears of entrapment or abandonment. This dilemma is further complicated by the need to choose between firmness and conciliation towards adversaries, with historical and contemporary examples illustrating its effects. Understanding the security dilemma in alliances is crucial because it influences how countries navigate their relationships with both allies and adversaries. In multipolar systems, the dilemma is more pronounced, leading to greater constraints on allies' policies, while in bipolar systems like NATO, its relative weakness helps explain ongoing conflicts and strategic tensions (35 pages).
