Recommended Reads

Here is what we at CGSR have been reading (and re-reading) recently

Chip Wars by Christopher Miller (2022). Microchips have become the critical resource underpinning modern military, economic, and geopolitical power, with America's historical dominance in chip design and manufacturing now being challenged by competitors, especially China. Chris Miller's "Chip War" highlights how the U.S.'s slipping control over chip production has led to a global chip shortage and a new Cold War, emphasizing the need to understand the pivotal role of semiconductors in today's world (464 pages).

Kill Chain by Christian Brose (2020). Christian Brose's book highlights the urgent need for the US military to adapt to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous systems to counter growing threats from rivals such as China and Russia. It emphasizes the importance of building a battle network that enables rapid threat assessment and decision-making to maintain America's military dominance and prevent future conflicts (320 pages).

Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century by Thérèse Delpech (2012). Deterrence remains a key strategy for managing nuclear threats in the 21st century. Thérèse Delpech advocates for updating Cold War-era concepts to address the complexities of modern nuclear actors, including new superpowers, smaller nuclear states, nonstate actors, and emerging domains like outer space and cyberspace (196 pages).

“Political Drivers of China's Changing Nuclear Policy” by Tong Zhao (2024). The report underscores that despite the 2021 virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, little progress has been made in nuclear dialogues, with China emphasizing the need to stabilize political relations first. It argues that China's nuclear expansion is driven by political considerations under Xi Jinping, and recommends addressing information gaps, exploring behavioral agreements, improving internal accountability, promoting strategic security dialogue, addressing the conventional-nuclear linkage, and empowering experts to mitigate nuclear risks (103 pages).

Articles

“Justifying Attacks on Nuclear Facilities” by Ludovica Castelli & Olamide Samuel (2024). The recent Russian military attacks on nuclear facilities in Ukraine highlight the normalization of such actions despite the prohibitions in the Geneva Conventions. This article examines the historical context and rationale behind these attacks, revealing that lax legal regulation is a deliberate feature of the global nuclear-nonproliferation regime, allowing these practices to persist as a coercive tool (23 pages).

“Playing with Proliferation: How South Korea and Saudi Arabia Leverage the Prospect of Going Nuclear” by Tristan Volpe (2024). Countries leverage nuclear latency by making credible threats to develop nuclear weapons to gain concessions, while also providing assurances of nuclear restraint if their demands are met. This approach involves convincing the United States of their genuine intentions, as seen with South Korea's advanced nuclear capabilities and Saudi Arabia's geopolitical strategies, despite both lacking significant fissile material production capabilities (17 pages).

“The U.S. Department of Deterrence” by Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay (2024). Gartzke and Linday explore the concept of "integrated deterrence," a strategic approach that combines various military and non-military tools to prevent conflict by convincing adversaries that the costs of aggression outweigh the benefits. It argues that while integrated deterrence is an ambitious goal, achieving it is complicated by the inherent challenges of synchronizing diverse military capabilities and political objectives. Integrated deterrence is crucial for adapting U.S. national security strategy to emerging global threats, particularly from major powers like China. Understanding its complexities helps policymakers balance military readiness with effective deterrence, ensuring that defense strategies align with political and strategic goal (13 pages).

“Access Denied? Non-Aligned State Decisions to Grant Access During War” by Emily Ellinger (2024). Ellinger explores the complex decision-making processes of neutral states during large-scale conflicts, focusing on Greece in World War I and Sweden in World War II. It highlights how these nations navigated the pressures of political survival, economic repercussions, and retaliation risks when deciding whether to grant military access to belligerent powers. Understanding these historical cases provides valuable insights into how neutral states balance conflicting pressures during wartime, offering lessons for modern strategic decisions and negotiations. By analyzing these past instances, the study helps inform current and future policies regarding military access and neutrality in international conflicts (15 pages).

“Imagining the Endgame of the U.S.-China Rivalry” Michael J. Mazarr (2024). This article argues that while the U.S.-China rivalry is intense and ongoing, history shows that such strategic competitions eventually end. It suggests that American policy would benefit from developing a clear vision of how this rivalry might conclude, balancing vigorous competition with a long-term strategy for eventual resolution. By envisioning potential endgames for the U.S.-China rivalry, the article encourages a more strategic approach that could avoid endless conflict and guide policy toward a stable and constructive future relationship. This perspective aims to reduce the risk of perpetual confrontation and help shape a more manageable and predictable course for U.S.-China interactions (15 pages).

What we’re re-reading given its importance today

The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy by Lawrence Freedman (1983). The book traces the evolution of nuclear strategy from the inception of the atomic bomb through various phases of Cold War dynamics, technological advancements, and geopolitical shifts, culminating in contemporary issues of nuclear proliferation and the return of great power politics. It explores themes such as deterrence, arms control, and the strategic doctrines of major nuclear powers, while questioning the feasibility of a coherent nuclear strategy in the modern era (472 pages).

“The Security Dilemma in Alliances Politics” by Glenn H. Snyder (1984). The "security dilemma" concept is explored in the context of alliances in both multipolar and bipolar systems, highlighting the challenge of balancing support for allies with fears of entrapment or abandonment. This dilemma is further complicated by the need to choose between firmness and conciliation towards adversaries, with historical and contemporary examples illustrating its effects. Understanding the security dilemma in alliances is crucial because it influences how countries navigate their relationships with both allies and adversaries. In multipolar systems, the dilemma is more pronounced, leading to greater constraints on allies' policies, while in bipolar systems like NATO, its relative weakness helps explain ongoing conflicts and strategic tensions (35 pages).

The listing herein of any non-LLNL publication does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the U.S. government or the Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC.