How New is the New Nuclear Age?

Abstract: Since the mid-2010s, scholars and analysts have declared the emergence of a dangerous ‘new’ or ‘third’ nuclear age. Beyond academia, the concept of the new nuclear age is proving influential with policymakers in a range of countries. The new nuclear age is understood to be characterized by technological change, nuclear multipolarity, eroding constraints on the behavior and competition of nuclear-armed states, and the likely emergence of new nuclear powers. That said, it remains unclear how we should understand the new nuclear age in broader terms: how new is it and does it require new theoretical frameworks to understand? I subject the concept of the new nuclear age to scrutiny. I connect the discussion of the new nuclear age to ongoing but mostly separate debates about nuclear history and the ‘Theory of the Nuclear Revolution’ (TNR). The increasing body of literature challenging TNR reveals a more competitive, complex, and dangerous nuclear past than our prior understandings, but in doing so, it draws attention to continuities between the past and the emerging nuclear age. I then examine the empirical features thought to define the new nuclear age and show that many have historical precedent and do not require novel theoretical frameworks to understand. The new nuclear age may, therefore, be somewhat less new, though perhaps no less dangerous, than it appears.

Mark Bell is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. His research examines issues relating to nuclear weapons and proliferation, international relations theory, and US and British foreign policy. His first book, Nuclear Reactions: How Nuclear-Armed States Behave, examines how states change their foreign policies when they acquire nuclear weapons, was published in 2021 by Cornell University Press and won the International Studies Association Foreign Policy Analysis Section's best book award. Other work has been published in journals including International Organization, International Security, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Strategic Studies, and Texas National Security Review. His policy-oriented work has been published by Foreign Affairs, War on the Rocks, and The Washington Quarterly. His work has been funded by organizations including the Stanton Foundation, the US Air Force Academy and Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Charles Koch Foundation, and the Tobin Project. 

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