Assessing Europe’s (Bad) Nuclear Options

Abstract: Europe must urgently confront a new nuclear reality. In recent years, Russia’s nuclear-backed revisionism has reintroduced nuclear coercion and the threat of nuclear escalation to the continent, underscoring the importance of credible nuclear deterrence. At the same time, Europe’s traditional reliance on US extended nuclear deterrence appears politically more fragile than at any point since the Cold War. Together, these developments require Europeans to think about their nuclear options. Based on the report of the European Nuclear Study Group, presented at the Munich Security Conference in February 2026, the lecture provides an overview of the ongoing European debate on nuclear deterrence and the various options that pundits and policymakers alike have put forward in the public debate, ranging from continued reliance on US extended nuclear deterrence, strengthening the role of British and French nuclear forces in European deterrence, developing a common European deterrent, and pursuing new, independent national nuclear deterrents, to investing in conventional deterrence without a nuclear component. However uncomfortable the debate may be, the new security environment requires European policymakers to confront the role of nuclear weapons in the defense of the continent directly and without delay – and to invest the resources needed to do so competently.  

Dr. Tobias Bunde is Professor of International Security at the Hertie School as well as the Director of Research and Policy at the Munich Security Conference and a member of the Executive Board of the Munich Security Conference Foundation. Tobias studied international relations at various institutions in Germany, France, and the United States and received his PhD in Political Science from Freie Universität Berlin. Since February 2024, Tobias has served as the co-chair (with James Davis and Claudia Major) of the European Nuclear Study Group, a joint initiative of the Munich Security Conference, the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School and the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen.