Russia After the War with Ukraine

Abstract: Former Russian prime minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, known for his awkward speaking style, once said: “we wanted to make it better, but it turned out as always.” Russia’s war with Ukraine is a perfect match for Chernomyrdin’s most famous quote. Having launched the war falsely claiming that Ukraine posed an intolerable threat to its security, Russia will emerge from it less secure, more resentful, and more threatening to Europe than before the war. Its threat perceptions, shaped by geography, new weapons technologies, and an upheaval in transatlantic relations, will cast a long shadow over Europe, continuing a long history of confrontation with the rest of the continent. 

Eugene Rumer is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program. Prior to joining Carnegie, Rumer was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2010 to 2014. Earlier, he held research appointments at the National Defense University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the RAND Corporation, and served at the State Department and on the National Security Council staff.

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