Ukraine and the New Way of War
Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine war is the first since the fall of the Soviet Union in which two major nuclear powers have found themselves on opposing sides of a high-intensity war, even if only indirectly. At the strategic level, the war offers four key lessons for the United States. First, the risk of an adversary using nuclear weapons is real and cannot be dismissed. Second, even under the nuclear shadow, protracted and highly destructive conventional war remains possible. Third, escalation thresholds are not fixed in advance; they emerge through ongoing contestation and tacit bargaining during war. And last, friction with allies and partners, particularly over questions of risk tolerance and escalation management, is inevitable. These lessons suggest that limited war with a nuclear-armed adversary is a scenario for which the United States must more intensively plan and prepare.
John Kawika Warden is a Senior Deterrence Analyst at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He is also an affiliate of the Center for Nuclear Security Policy (CNSP) within MIT’s Security Studies Program. His areas of focus include U.S. defense strategy and foreign policy; nuclear weapons and deterrence; escalation, stability, and arms control; and technology and the future of warfare. Mr. Warden has previously served as the Director for Strategic Stability and Arms Control at the National Security Council, on the professional staff of the House Armed Services Committee, as a Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses, as a Senior Policy Analyst at Science Applications International Corporation, as a Senior Fellow at Pacific Forum, and as a Program Coordinator at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Rebecca Lissner is a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Lissner most recently served as deputy assistant to the president and principal deputy national security advisor to the vice president in the Biden-Harris administration, counseling Vice President Kamala Harris and senior White House leadership on the full range of national security and foreign policy matters, including frequently serving as the vice president’s representative in the U.S. government Principals Committee and Deputies Committee, the senior-level decision-making and crisis-management forums on pressing national security issues composed of cabinet members and their deputies.
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