Toward a New Strategic Approach to U.S. Extended Nuclear Deterrence

Abstract: Over the past 75 years, U.S. extended nuclear deterrence has been central to alliance security in Europe and Asia. That system now faces mounting strain as multiple adversaries expand and modernize their nuclear forces and as U.S. strategic priorities shift, raising serious questions about the credibility and effectiveness of U.S. guarantees. This lecture will trace the evolution of U.S. strategic thought on extended deterrence and assesses four broad options for the future: reducing commitments, expanding guarantees, maintaining the status quo, or sharing deterrence responsibilities more explicitly with allies and partners. It will examine the trade-offs among these approaches and the implications for assurance, escalation risks, and alliance cohesion. The lecture will also explore what a new division of deterrence labor might look like, and what additional capabilities, force postures, and consultative mechanisms could be required to meet emerging demands in a two-nuclear-peer, increasingly multipolar environment.  

Paige Gasser is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Her work focuses on U.S. deterrence strategy and policy, extended deterrence, strategic stability, nonproliferation, and arms control. Previously, she served on assignment as a Senior Policy Advisor in the Strategy, Plans and Policy Directorate (J5) on the Joint Staff at the Department of Defense, where she advised the Chairman, Vice Chairman, and other senior leaders on NATO, nuclear arms control, extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, and nuclear modernization. She also served as a Senior Policy Advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, in the Office of Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, with a principal focus on congressional affairs and nuclear modernization. Since joining LLNL in 2018, she has supported a range of National Nuclear Security Administration and U.S. Department of State projects on deterrence, nonproliferation, and arms control. Paige holds a B.S. in Social Sciences and Global Politics from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, and an M.A. in Law and Diplomacy from The Fletcher School at Tufts University.

Technical Contact: Brad Roberts            
Event Manager: Katie Thomas, thomas94 [at] llnl.gov (thomas94[at]llnl[dot]gov)