Future and Nuclear Abolition
Abstract: In an era of great power competition and a worsening security environment, the nuclear ban treaty might appear to be at risk of irrelevance. Yet ignoring the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) would come with risks to extended nuclear deterrence and the nuclear order for the United States and its allies and partners. This volume offers an original and in-depth examination of the theories, politics, and debates involved in the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons conferences and negotiation of the TPNW.
There are numerous histories of the TPNW, however they have predominantly been written by the Treaty’s supporters and offer only one side of the story. This paper makes an important contribution by focusing on the perspective of a nuclear possessor state, the United States, drawing on in-depth interviews with U.S. policymakers. It challenges conventional wisdom about the role of nuclear possessor states in the lead-up to the TPNW. By doing so it not only highlights challenges for the future of disarmament but also points to the central importance of involving key states in disarmament efforts.
What comes next for nuclear disarmament? Debates about the TPNW are fundamentally debates about theories of change for nuclear disarmament. The TPNW has advanced a theory of change based on delegitimizing nuclear weapons, whereas the United States and others promote a step-by-step approach to disarmament. This volume reveals flaws with both theories and considers five potential futures for the TPNW. The paper concludes with an alternative theory of change towards nuclear disarmament and identifies new and potentially dangerous pathways to nuclear disarmament based on emerging technologies.
Heather Williams is the director of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a senior fellow in the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a member of the Defense Science Board, an associate fellow with the Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, and a senior associate with the Royal United Services Institute in London. Before joining CSIS, Dr. Williams was a visiting fellow with the Project on Managing the Atom and a Stanton nuclear security fellow in the Security Studies Program at MIT. Until 2022, she was a senior lecturer (associate professor) at King’s College London and served as a specialist adviser to the House of Lords International Relations Committee. Dr. Williams has a PhD in war studies from King’s College London, an MA in security policy studies from the George Washington University, and a BA in international relations and Russian studies from Boston University.
