Russia, Ukraine and Beyond: Challenges for the U.S.

Abstract: Western Russia experts are too often tempted to engage in mind‑reading, prophecies, and “essentialist” claims about Russians, but this obscures more than it explains. A sober baseline starts with facts: Russia’s nuclear arsenal and continental scale mean it cannot simply be wished away or fully isolated while Vladimir Putin retains coercive tools. This talk will touch on Putin’s evolution from early‑2000s legalist pragmatist to geopolitical revisionist and ideological authoritarian, shaped by fears of “color revolutions” and pandemic isolation. On Ukraine, it will posit that the Kremlin’s preoccupation with Ukraine’s history and identity, NATO’s trajectory, and regime security is mutually exclusive with Ukraine’s imperfect but resilient democratic evolution and sovereignty. It will assess nuclear dangers related to the conflict and spillover risks from proliferation to crises in Asia. Lastly, it will seek to define reasonable U.S. objectives, including Ukraine’s survival as a self‑determining democracy, containment of Russian expansion, and reinforcement of the norm against changing borders by force. Recognizing the difficulty of achieving even a minimalist ceasefire at present, the talk will also counsel preparing for the lasting costs of a divided European/Eurasian space in terms of regional security, reconstruction, and political development.

Matthew Rojansky serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of The U.S. Russia Foundation. Prior to USRF, Rojansky served from 2013 as Director of the Kennan Institute, the premier U.S. center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program within the Congressionally chartered Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Mr. Rojansky is among the most widely recognized and cited U.S. experts on Russia, and has published works on the history and practice of U.S.-Russia relations, bilateral exchanges, and rule of law.

Technical Contact: Brad Roberts            
Event Manager: Katie Thomas, thomas94 [at] llnl.gov (thomas94[at]llnl[dot]gov)