The Urgent Imperative to Augment US Theater Nuclear Forces

Abstract: The dramatic worsening of the international security environment following Russia’s two invasions of Ukraine, and China’s decision to dramatically grow their nuclear forces poses a serious challenge to U.S. national security strategy writ large, and to U.S. nuclear strategy in particular.  Formulating a U.S. strategy to address the impending two peer threat environment is necessary if the nation is to ensure that it has the nuclear forces necessary to enable our strategy in the mid 2030s.

The most urgent imperative is to augment U.S. theater nuclear forces.  Our current and planned forces are inadequate to deter or counter the threat of adversary limited nuclear escalation in both Europe and Asia.  Some of the key attributes the future U.S. theater nuclear force will require can be identified now.  However, other key attributes, and the size of the theater nuclear force needed require further analysis.  An essential element of that analysis is a campaign of operational level military wargaming of modern theater war involving the limited use of nuclear weapons.

Gregory Weaver is a retired deputy director for Strategic Stability in the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Directorate for Strategic Plans and Policy (J5). In this role, he was responsible for developing Joint Staff positions and recommendations on strategic deterrence and nuclear policy, as well as overseeing Department of Defense efforts to combat weapons of mass destruction and negotiate international strategic agreements. Prior to his tenure on the Joint Staff, Weaver served as principal director for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, where he managed policy matters related to U.S. nuclear and missile defense forces, strategy, plans, and requirements

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