The Shooting Party: Russia’s Evolving Threat Perceptions Since 2022

Abstract: The lecture focuses on how Russian military thinkers interpret and operationalize the threat perceptions defined by the country’s political leadership. This presentation argues that although Russian operations in Ukraine reveal a degree of adaptability, the war has not reshaped Russia’s broader framework of threat perceptions. Rather than introducing fundamentally new assessments, current military discourse tends to reinterpret established concerns through the lens of ongoing conflict. In effect, Russia’s experience in Ukraine has not altered Russia’s security anxieties but has instead amplified and reinforced them. The talk will identify specific nuclear, non-nuclear, and space capabilities that Russian military thinkers see as threats and the debates pertaining the mitigations they propose to overcome perceived US and NATO advantages. The programs that will be discussed include the Golden Dome, Prompt Global Strike Programs, and the possibility of American long-range strike capabilities in Scandinavia. This talk will benefit national security scholars as they are likely to be interested in the proposals from Russian military leaders when it comes to possible mitigations, whereas arms control scholars will find the content of this talk useful because it provides an overview of the specific capabilities that the Russian military views as threatening.

Gabriela Iveliz Rosa-Hernandez is an analyst at CNA’s Russia Studies Program. Her recent research at CNA has focused on Russian strategic deterrence, Russia’s Medical Corps and battlefield medicine practices, and the military thought of the Russian Armed Forces more broadly. She has significant in-country experience in Russia, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Poland, and other countries in the region. At CNA, Rosa-Hernandez has contributed to over dozens of reports on the Russian military. Her commentary has been featured in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Time magazine, and other media.

Technical Contact: Brad Roberts            
Event Manager: Katie Thomas, thomas94 [at] llnl.gov (thomas94[at]llnl[dot]gov)