Understanding Russian Strategic Culture and the Low-Yield Nuclear Threat

Abstract: This presentation, based on a recently published RAND report, will analyze how Russian strategic culture shapes the country’s nuclear posture, with a particular focus on non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs). By examining the cultural, historical, and ideological factors influencing Russian decision-making, the study provides insights into how and why Russia might consider employing NSNWs, especially in the context of its perceived conventional inferiority to NATO. The research integrates scenario planning to illustrate possible escalation pathways and draws on expert interviews to highlight Western perceptions and implications for deterrence. The findings underscore the importance for NATO Allies — including both nuclear and non-nuclear states — to deepen their understanding of Russian strategic culture, monitor changes in NSNW deployments, and adapt deterrence strategies accordingly. The project also discusses options for strengthening NATO’s conventional and nuclear posture in Europe, with recommendations for enhancing preparedness and Alliance cohesion in the face of Russian nuclear signaling and strategic ambiguity.

Dr. Mattias Eken is an analyst at RAND Europe in the Defence, Security and Justice research group. His research specialisms include nuclear strategy, deterrence, strategic culture, missile defense, and societal resilience. In addition, he has worked on projects relating to emerging technologies, including the military risks and opportunities of AI, and the space sector. Eken has contributed to research projects for high-profile clients such as the UK Ministry of Defence, Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, the UK Defence Academy, and the Australian Department of Defense. Prior to joining RAND, Eken worked at Richmond, the American University in London and at the University of St. Andrews. His research has been published in outlets such as Newsweek, Business Insider, and Kyiv Post. Eken holds a Ph.D. in modern history from University of St. Andrews, an M.A. in war studies from King's College London, and a B.A. in history from University of Wales, Trinity Saint David.

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