Denial Without Disaster: Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold

Abstract: With China as the pacing challenge and a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as the pacing scenario, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) must balance operational effectiveness, force survivability, and escalation management as it considers its approach to prosecuting a hypothetical future conflict with China. As a result of China's secure second-strike nuclear retaliatory capability, the United States must now, more than ever, consider how to tailor its conventional military operations to avoid triggering Chinese nuclear first use. This talk covers a series of 2024 RAND reports exploring how the U.S. joint force could better balance military operational effectiveness, force survivability, and escalation management in a Taiwan conflict scenario.

Mr. Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga is a senior policy researcher at RAND. His focus at RAND is on Asian security issues, and his research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military strategy, Chinese influence operations, Chinese nuclear strategy, Chinese deterrence signaling, the Korean Peninsula, and the INDOPACOM posture.

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