Hard National Security Artificial General Intelligence's Five Problems

Abstract: The potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is plausible and should be taken seriously by the U.S. national security community. Yet the pace and potential progress of AGI's emergence — as well as the composition of a post-AGI future — is shrouded in a cloud of uncertainty. This poses a challenge for strategists and policymakers trying to discern what potential threats and opportunities might emerge on the path to AGI and once AGI is achieved.

Jim Mitre is the vice president and director of RAND Global and Emerging Risks.  His background is in defense strategy, which he worked on for over a decade in the Pentagon including serving as the executive director of the 2018 National Defense Strategy. He’s also worked on data and artificial intelligence in the private sector as well as in the Pentagon as a senior advisor to the deputy secretary of defense. At RAND, his current research focuses on the geopolitical and national security implications of the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence. 

Joel B. Predd is a senior engineer at RAND where he served in various roles since 2006. Dr. Predd’s current research portfolio focuses on the geopolitics of artificial intelligence and on the intersection of the security and economic competition with China. Previously, he served as director of the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center (ATP) within the RAND National Security Research Division from 2018 until early 2022, where he oversaw a period of growth in the breadth and depth of RAND's portfolio of force planning, technology and acquisition, and supply chain research for Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), the Joint Staff, the Combatant Commands, defense agencies like DARPA, and international sponsors.

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