Double Trouble: The Intense US-China Stability-Instability Paradox and Limited War in East Asia

Abstract: This article draws on the stability-instability paradox to compare the prospect for limited war between the United States and China to the U.S.-Soviet rivalry Cold War. The term was coined during the Cold War and highlights that stability at the strategic nuclear level makes limited wars appear safer to fight. We argue that two key factors – geography, and the prevalence of territorial disputes – affect the intensity of the stability-instability paradox. Comparing the Cold War to the contemporary U.S.-China rivalry, we highlight that the prospects for keeping a conventional war limited in maritime East Asia is greater than in a land theater in Europe. This may increase both China and the United States’ willingness to take risks and exacerbate the intensity of the paradox. In addition, unlike Cold War Europe, contemporary East Asia is rife with territorial disputes, which may trigger a conflict. We further argue that the nature of the East Asian theater, coupled with technological shifts, makes the risk of limited nuclear employment higher now than during the Cold War. Because of these differences, a “double trouble” is emerging, where the risk of both limited, conventional war, and deliberate limited nuclear first use is higher than during the Cold War. 

Henrik Stålhane Hiim is professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies at the Norwegian Defence University College. His main research interests are nuclear strategy and nonproliferation, as well as Chinese foreign and security policy. His work has appeared in outlets such as International Security, International Affairs, Journal of Contemporary China, Survival, and Foreign Affairs. Mr. Hiim was previously a senior researcher and Asia program coordinator at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs).

Øystein Tunsjø is professor and Head of the Security in Asia Program at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies at the Norwegian Defence University College. Mr. Tunsjø is author of several books, including The Return of Bipolarity in World Politics: China, the United States and Geostructural Realism, (Columbia University Press, 2018); Security and Profits in China’s Energy Policy: Hedging Against Risk (Columbia University Press, 2013) Tunsjø has published articles in journals such as The Washington Quarterly, The National Interests, Survival, International Relations, Cooperation and Conflict and World Economy and Politics (in Chinese) and contributed with book chapters to several edited volumes.

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