PRC Thinking on Strategic Deterrence and Implications for Cross-Strait Stability

Jan. 14, 2025

Abstract: At the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, Xi Jinping called on the People’s Liberation Army to build a “strong system of strategic deterrence.” Xi’s rhetoric coincided with an unprecedented buildup of China’s nuclear arsenal as well as rapid growth of China’s strategic conventional capabilities and followed a stark deterioration of cross-Strait relations following the U.S. Speaker of the House’s visit in August. This talk will explore the meaning and implications of Xi’s injunction to the PLA. It will focus specifically on “strategic deterrence” as a means of reducing the likelihood of U.S. intervention in a future cross-Strait conflict by targeting the perceived unwillingness of U.S. decision-makers to engage in a war that could threaten the U.S. homeland. Confidence that Washington and its allies would balk at the higher risks of intervention could increase the prospects for conflict this decade, even if U.S. leaders ultimately discount those signals. The talk will also explore the strategies needed to undermine any PRC confidence that “strategic deterrence” will prove effective. 

Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His recent books and monographs include China’s Quest for Military Supremacy (2025, with Phillip C. Saunders), Gray Dragons: Assessing China's Senior Military Leadership (2022), Crossing the Strait: China's Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (2022, lead editor), and The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context (2021, lead editor). His research and commentary have also appeared in outlets such as Asia Policy, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Naval War College Review, and in edited volumes. Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Wuthnow was a China analyst at CNA, a postdoctoral fellow in the China and the World Program at Princeton University, and a pre-doctoral fellow at The Brookings Institution. His degrees are from Princeton University (A.B., summa cum laude, in Public and International Affairs), Oxford University (M.Phil. in Modern Chinese Studies), and Columbia University (Ph.D. in Political Science).

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Administrative POC: Katie Thomas, thomas94 [at] llnl.gov (thomas94[at]llnl[dot]gov)

Joel Wuthnow